So as you can imagine, I’m pumped that now it’s basketball season. So I decided to pump out my Top 20 teams with a little blurb about each, declare a national champion, a few conference champions, players to watch (freshmen included) and so much more. So here it is:
Top 20:
1) UCLA. With the return of a talented, blue collar squad (Darren Collison, Josh Shipp, and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute) plus perhaps the most talented freshmen big guy (Kevin Love), the Bruins will be cutting down the nets at the end of the season. Their one problem? Playing in the toughest conference in the land. Though they may experience a few bumps in the road, they should be battle-tested in the end and poised to make a run for the championship. UCLA would be a near lock if All-Everything Aaron Afflalo had not bolted for the NBA a year early, but even without Afflalo, the Bruins should be the toast of L.A.
2) North Carolina. The Tar Heels return a ton of talent in All-American candidates Tyler Hansbrough (18.4 ppg, 7.9 rpg), Wayne Ellington (11.7 ppg) and Ty Lawson (10.2 ppg). The only question for the Tar Heels is if any one of their starters goes down with injury, who will step in for them? With all the talent in the world in the starting five, UNC’s biggest weakness is depth.
3) Memphis. Derrick Rose (left) could be one of the best players in the nation as a freshman. He will make an immediate impact, and will immediately make them a top five team. Chris Douglas-Roberts (15.4 ppg) returns, as does Robert Dozier (9.6 ppg) and big-man Joey Dorsey (8.5 ppg, 9.4 rpg). With an easy conference schedule, look for the Tigers to be a top-tier team. But will Conference USA test them enough for the tournament? They only play four legitimate top 25 teams all year (USC, Georgetown, Arizona and Gonzaga), so the biggest challenge for the Tigers will getting used to better competition once March arrives.
4) Kansas. The talented duo of Mario Chalmers and Brandon Rush return for their junior seasons, and the addition of freshman All-American center Cole Aldrich will make the Jayhawks the team to beat in the weak Big 12. In addition, Sherron Collins and Darrell Arthur should become two of the nations best sophomores after solid freshman campaigns. Both averaged just over nine points per game for Kansas last season.
5) Georgetown. Seniors Roy Hibbert and Jonathan Wallace return for the Hoyas, who are the favorites for the Big East title. Both will get looks as Wooden Award candidates, and with good reason. But keep an eye on freshman Austin Freeman who is a big-time scorer and the future of this Georgetown team.
6) Tennessee. This loaded team will rely on their star, Chris Lofton (right), and three Smiths (Tyler, JaJuan, Ramar) to win the SEC. They should win the SEC easily with only Arkansas and Kentucky as the real threats. Watch out for this team once the tourney arrives—they could make a deep run. Tyler Smith, who transferred from Iowa to be closer to his family after the recent death of his father, has great court vision and will be a huge contributor on the floor.
7) Louisville. Rick Pitino has built a squad that will challenge Georgetown for the Big East title. Terrence Williams and Edgar Sosa return, as do four other players who averaged over eight points per game for the Cardinals last season. Louisville, Georgetown and Marquette will be the favorites in the Big East.
8) Indiana. Despite recruiting violations, Kelvin Sampson has a talented team this year for Hoosier fans to enjoy. The pre-season favorites for the Big Ten, freshman Eric Gordon and senior D.J. White will lead this talented bunch where anything less than a four seed in the NCAA tournament will be a disappointment.
9) Washington State. This veteran squad will try to prove last season’s success was not a fluke and that the Cougs are not a one year wonder. Derrick Lowe (left) who averaged 13.7 ppg last season must step it up at point to lead this balanced Cougar squad in the Pac-10. Having Kyle Weaver and Robbie Cowgill back will help as well—in fact, the Cougs only lost one player (Ivory Clark) who played significant minutes. Washington State proved they were behind coach Tony Bennett when they signed him to a contract extension. And Bennett responded by bringing in perhaps the most talented freshman class to enter Pullman in years. Bennett thinks Thomas Abercrombie from New Zealand could be one of the best Cougars in history when his career is done.
10) Marquette. The Golden Eagles return quite a bit of scoring with four players returning who averaged more than eight points per game, but also got help with some talented incoming players. Trevor Mbakwe (freshman) and Maurice Acker (transfer) will join Dominic James (14.9 ppg) and Jerel McNeal (14.7 ppg) to lead Marquette as a significant challenger in the Big East.
11) Michigan State. Drew Neitzel, who seems like he’s been a Spartan for 20 years, returns for his final season for Tom Izzo. Along with sophomore Raymar Morgan and freshman Kalin Lucas, Michigan State is poised to finish near the top of the Big Ten.
12) Gonzaga. While the Zags must replace WCC co-POY Derek Raivio, the Bulldogs got help with the reinstatement of Josh Heytvelt and the return of guards Jeremy Pargo and Micah Downs. Mark Few has one of the deepest squads in the country, so he must find a way to build chemistry will getting everyone appropriate playing time. Ira Brown and Austin Daye are the stars in Few’s best recruiting class during his tenure at Gonzaga, and with Larry Gurganious back from injury and Matt Bouldin back from his stint with the U19 Team USA program, the Zags will look to make a deep run in the tournament—something they have not done in years.
13) Oregon. Sophomore Tajuan Porter (right), all 5'6" of him and three seniors (Hairston, Taylor and Leunen) will lead a veteran Oregon squad who must replace their star (Aaron Brooks) who is now in the NBA. All three star seniors are on pace to have their degrees by the time Pac-10 play starts, so that will take away the off-court distractions of classes. If the run-and-gun Ducks, led by Porter (14.6 ppg), can defend well—especially in the paint, their one weakness—they can go a long ways. But their going to depend on their trademark quickness and shooting to win, while teams try to slow them down and work the ball inside where the Ducks are questionable.
14) Duke. The Blue Devils are small this year, with three returning star guards (Paulus, Nelson, Scheyer) and three incoming stars (freshmen Taylor King, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler). But Duke will need to improve in the paint to make a big run with only three players on the roster over 6’6” with a total average of 7.1 combined points per game in college. With the ACC down a bit this year, the Blue Devils should find themselves alone in second place, steps behind rival North Carolina, but steps ahead of the rest of the pack.
15) Texas A&M. The Aggies lost their coach and star point guard, but return Josh Carter and Joseph Jones. The Aggies will also rely on two star freshmen in DeAndre Jordan and Nathan Walkup, which could lead to a second place finish in the Big 12. However the loss of Acie Law IV did hurt, as he at times single-handedly won games for A&M. But look for Joseph Jones to step up in Law’s shoes as the go-to guy in the clutch. Though he is a completely different player than Law, he does possess the ability to score when needed. That’s something A&M will rely on in close games in the Big 12.
16) Arizona. Sophomore Chase Budinger (15.6 ppg) and freshman Jerryd Bayless will try to lead the Wildcats in the loaded Pac-10. The aging Lute Olson (72-years-old) will miss the first few games citing personal reasons, which the young squad will have to fight through. Olson shook up his program after some off-court incidents. Part of that shake up was forcing out a long-time assistant (Jim Rosborough) and letting Marcus Williams leave for the NBA.
17) Texas. Even without Kevin Durant this Longhorn team will still be a team to beat with the return of most of the amazing freshman class last season. D.J. Augustin (left) who played the floor manager last season (14.4 ppg, 6.7 apg) will still be at point but have an expanded role, and Damion James and Justin Mason (each at 7.6 ppg) return as well. A.J. Abrams (15.5 ppg) returns as the Longhorns’ best returning scorer.
18) USC. Taj Gibson (12.2 ppg, 8.7 rpg) is their best returnee, but all-everything freshman O.J. Mayo is who Tim Floyd will help the Trojans become more than just UCLA’s little brother. Despite losing their top three scorers, the Trojans look like they could make some serious noise in the Pac-10 thanks in part to Floyd’s recruiting class. In addition to Mayo, Marcus Simmons and Davon Jefferson should make an immediate impact for USC.
19) Pittsburg. While this squad returns a fair amount of talent led by senior Mike Cook (10.5 ppg), their freshmen are what could make-or-break the season for the Panthers. This class, led by DeJuan Blair and Bradley Wanamaker, are being heralded as the best class in the Jamie Dixon era at Pittsburgh.
20) Arkansas. What the Razorbacks lack in guards they more than make up for with height. A young backcourt will have to learn with trial-by-fire, but the SEC is down a little this year, so they can rely on their forwards for a while.
Top Five Conferences (in order): Pac-10, Big East, ACC, SEC, Big 12, Big Ten
National Championship: UCLA over North Carolina
Five Freshmen to Watch: Eric Gordon (Indiana), Derrick Rose (Memphis), O.J. Mayo (USC), Kevin Love (UCLA), Michael Beasley (Kansas State)
First Team All-America:
G – Chris Lofton (Tennessee)
G – Darren Collison (UCLA)
F – Brandon Rush (Kansas)
F – Tyler Hansbrough (North Carolina) Player of the Year (left)
C – Roy Hibbert (Georgetown)
Second Team All-America:
G – Drew Neitzel (Michigan State)
G – Sean Singletary (Virginia)
F – Chase Budinger (Arizona)
F – Joseph Jones (Texas A&M)
C – Josh Heytvelt (Gonzaga)
Third Team All-America:
G – Derrick Rose (Memphis)
G – Derrick Lowe (Washington State)
F – Jon Brockman (Washington)
F – D.J. White (Indiana)
C – Brook Lopez (Stanford)
Fourth Team All-America:
G – Eric Gordon (Indiana)
G – Chris Douglas-Roberts (Memphis)
F – O.J. Mayo (USC) (left)
F – Kevin Love (UCLA)
C – David Padgett (Louisville)
Honorable Mention: Josh Shipp (UCLA), Taj Gibson (USC), Marcellus Kemp (Nevada), Ty Lawson (North Carolina), Brandon Costner (NC State), Dominic James (Marquette)
Five teams that are sleepers:
1) Kansas State. The Wildcats are very, very young and even more talented. They play in a weaker Big 12 where in-state rival Kansas is the favorite. But with a few games under their belt, the Wildcats could challenge Kansas, Texas A&M and Texas for the title.
2) Washington. Despite playing in the toughest conference in the nation, the Huskies could surprise people after a disappointing 2006-07 season. They lost Spencer Hawes, but return Jon Brockman and a slew of shooters. If Ryan Appleby’s thumb heals quickly, watch out for the Huskies. Don’t look at their record in the Pac-10 (as everyone will have plenty of losses because of the depth in the conference), but their non-conference results could have a huge impact of whether or not they make the tournament.
3) Stanford. The Lopez twins, Robin and Brook (left), are towers in the paint for the Cardinal. Brook is the first real legitimate All-American candidate in Palo Alto since Brevin Knight in 1997.
4) Providence. Though the Big East is loaded this year, the Friars have an experienced backcourt with junior guards Sharaud Curry (15.3 ppg) and Weyinmi Efejuku (14.1 ppg). If they can limit their turnovers (averaged 17 per game last season), the Friars could be right in the thick of the Big East title contenders.
5) Xavier. The Musketeers return three of their top five scorers from last years team that almost knocked off Ohio State in the second round. They also signed their coach, Sean Miller, to a long-term contract. With all those elements back, look for Xavier to repeat as Atlantic-10 champions.
Predicted finishes by conference:
ACC: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Virginia, NC State, Boston College, Maryland, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Miami
Big 12: Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor, Nebraska, Iowa State, Colorado
Big East: Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Connecticut, Providence, Villanova, Notre Dame, DePaul, Cincinnati, Seaton Hall, St. John’s, Rutgers, South Florida
Big Ten: Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Purdue, Iowa, Minnesota, Penn State, Northwestern
Pac-10: UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, Arizona, Stanford, USC, Washington, California, Arizona State, Oregon State
SEC: (EAST) Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Georgia, South Carolina; (WEST) Arkansas, Mississippi State, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Ole Mississippi
2 comments:
Texas is going to be interesting this season. Augustine looked great feeding Durant and then getting open looks at 3's last season, but it will be a different story this year. Losing such a dynamic player will hurt the Longhorns in close games because, like a Michael Jordan or Kobe, he demanded the best defender. The team lost in the 2nd round of the tourney last season. I would expect that result again as inexperience will haunt them for a second straight year.
I hear OJ Mayo is the real deal. If that's the case, USC is going to be tough to handle again this year. If they had any sort of consistency last season they would have made the final four. Mayo, if he turns out to be a stud, should give them that needed 15 point-per-game boost (And they might even be able to beat the vaunted crosstown Bruins).
I think D.J. Augustin played Tracy McGrady to Durant's Vince Carter. This is D.J.'s team now, and between he and A.J. Abrams they should be fine in a Big 12 that is a bit down this year (other than Kansas and A&M).
Mayo should be good, but the Pac-10, especially this year, is a little different than high school ball. This is as loaded of a Pac-10 as I can ever remember. They'll definitely get a NCAA birth just from Mayo/Gibson combo, but I'd be shocked if they finished any higher than three. Beyond Mayo and Gibson, they don't have the depth other teams in the Pac-10 do (i.e. UCLA, Wash. St., Oregon, and even 'Zona).
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