Top 20:
1) UNC. Roy Williams has complied a masterpiece. Though he has already won two national championships in Chapel Hill, this might be his most loaded team yet. Harrison Barnes (right) returns and is a top contender for Player of the Year. John Henson, Tyler Zeller and Kendall Marshall could all compete for first team All-American honors, and freshmen James McAdoo and P.J. Hairston are as talented as anyone in the country. Guards Kendall Marshall and Dexter Strickland (perhaps the best defender on the team) will also be a strength. This team is experience and talented, but if they had one weakness, it would be depth. Still, barring any major injuries, the Tar Heels have to be the favorites to cut down the nets at the end of the season.2) Kentucky. John Calipari has done it again: he has absolutely loaded his team with freshman talent. In fact, this might be the most talented class he’s ever brought in (and that’s saying something considering his last two classes at Kentucky). Anthony Davis (PF), Marquis Teague (PG) and Michael Gilchrist (SF) were all considered the top players at their position coming out of high school, and Kyle Wiltjer (C) was the third-ranked prospect. Not too shabby for the fans in Lexington. But the real story is the return of Terrence Jones and Doron Lamb. Unlike Calipari’s teams of past, this one will feature more than just talented freshmen. And while Jones and Lamb (sophomores) are not exactly veterans, they have the tournament experience and leadership to guide the talented freshman class all the way to the championship.
3) Connecticut. The defending national champions lost all-everything Kemba Walker, but surprisingly, coach Jim Calhoun thinks this could be an even better team. Jeremy Lamb is certainly a favorite for Big East Player of the Year and Shabazz Napier is almost equally as talented. But the big reason for the Huskies’ potential success is because of talented freshman Andre Drummond who could be the top pick in the NBA in 2012. Drummond has everything you look for in a center: size (nearly 7’0”), athleticism, shot-blocking ability. He’s a little raw offensively, but his size, defense and presence in the paint is second to none. Freshman wing DeAndre Daniels’ shooting ability could very well propel him into the national spotlight as well.
4) Ohio State. Though they lost a lot of talent off of last year’s team, it’s ultimately not about what the Buckeyes lost, it’s about what they return: Jared Sullinger. Sullinger, who is a favorite for national Player of the Year, is enough to land Ohio State the Big Ten title and a top 10 ranking, but it’s supporting players like Aaron Craft, William Buford, and freshman Amir Williams that push the Buckeyes over the edge. They have arguably the best frontcourt in the nation and one of the best backcourts (and they added a star freshman to the backcourt in Shannon Scott). Don’t be surprised to see them in the Final Four.
5) Duke. The Blue Devils always seem to be in this area pre-season and though this year’s team might not be as good as last year’s, Coach K always puts a winner on the floor. This year they are led by the Plumlee brothers (Miles, Mason and Marshall), Seth Curry, and potentially the best freshman in the country with Austin Rivers. Add in freshman Quinn Cook and a potential break-out year from Ryan Kelly, and another Final Four is not out of the range of possibilities.
6) Syracuse. The Orange are kind of the great unknown. They could be really good. Like, national championship good. Or they could struggle to finish in the top three in the Big East. On paper, it should be somewhere in-between, but we will see. They did win 27 games last year and return most of that roster, but it will be interesting to see if returners Dion Waiters and Fab Melo, and freshmen Rakeem Christmas, Trevor Cooney and Michael Carter-Williams can develop into major contributors.
7) Louisville. Despite his off-the-court troubles, Rick Pitino has put together some solid teams in Louisville. Peyton Siva is a solid guard, plus the return of Kyle Kuric should be enough to keep the Cardinals near the top of the Big East standings. Plus the addition of forward Chane Behanan, center Zach Price and guard Wayne Blackshear will only help Pitino’s club make a run for the Big East championship.
8) Pittsburgh. The Panthers would be favored to win many conferences in the country, but unfortunately for them, they play in the loaded Big East. But look for Jamie Dixon’s club to make a deep run into the tournament thanks to returners Ashton Gibbs (left), Nasir Robinson and Travon Woodall. Dixon also added some talent in shooter Durand Johnson and the raw, but athletic forward Khem Birch.9) Vanderbilt. This team could be underrated at number nine, which would surprise many people because the Commodores are not a traditional basketball powerhouse. But this isn’t your traditional Commodore team. Kevin Stallings has put together a deep and talented team. John Jenkins, Jeff Taylor and Festus Ezeli could all go to the NBA and incoming guards Dai-Jon Parker and Kedren Johnson will only add depth to the backcourt.
10) Memphis. Josh Pastner’s first recruiting class was talented, but injury-prone. If the Tigers can stay healthy, the return of Will Barton, Joe Jackson and Tarki Black, plus the addition of the athletic Adonis Thomas, and the Tigers should win the C-USA easily. This team eventually came together at the end of last season to push Arizona to the brink in the NCAA tournament, so if that can level of play can be sustained throughout the season, look for Memphis to make a run in the tournament.
11) Florida. Billy Donovan has been slowly rebuilding this program after they lost so much talent in those back-to-back championship teams. This might be his best team since those championship runs. They return guards Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton who led the Gators to the Elite Eight last year, and they bring in two really good players in freshmen guard Brad Beal and transfer guard Mike Rosario. The Gators backcourt is as good as anyone in the country. The season might hinge on the development of Patrice Young, who has the potential to be one of the best players in the nation, and troubled forward Cody Larson who was recently reinstated to the team after his second run-in with the law.
12) Baylor. A combination of the Big 12 being down and the return of Perry Jones and Quincy Acy to an already pretty good Bears team should lead Baylor to a Big 12 championship. Expect Quincy Miller to make an immediate impact as a freshman.
13) Xavier. Tu Holloway (right) was a third team All-American last year as he averaged nearly 20 ppg. He also distributes the ball well, averaging over 5 apg. The Musketeers could emerge as the next great mid-major, following the blueprint of Gonzaga and Butler.14) Cincinnati. The Bearcats return their top four scorers off a team that did well last year, plus they’re bringing in stud shooter Jermaine Sanders. Sanders has good range, but can also score on mid-range jumpers consistently.
15) Gonzaga. The Zags lost their starting backcourt in Steven Gray (graduated) and Demetri Goodson (left the program), but Gray was a streaky shooter and talented freshman Gary Bell should replace him. Goodson was a decent point guard, but couldn’t shoot and eventually lost playing time over the course of last season to returners David Stockton and Marquise Carter. The Zags have talent in both the frontcourt and backcourt, but the backcourt lacks experience. This team might take its lumps early, but it’s not a team you want to play in March.
16) Michigan. If Darius Morris had stayed at Michigan for one more year, this would have been a Final Four caliber team. Instead, he’s sitting at home waiting for the lockout to end and his career with the L.A. Lakers to begin. But John Beilein brings back a balanced group. He has a penetrating guard (Tim Hardaway Jr.), shooters (Zack Novak and Stu Douglass), some height (Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford), some length (Evan Smotrycz), and some talented freshmen (Trey Burke and Carlton Brundidge). A Big Ten championship is not out of reach for the Wolverines, especially after they lost to Big Ten favorite Ohio State on a half-court buzzer-beater last season at the Big Ten tournament in Indianapolis.
17) Texas A&M. The Aggies have a new coach in Billy Kennedy, but there is plenty of talent returing on this roster. Khris Middleton should be as good as any player in the Big 12 and Ray Turner can flat-out shoot.
18) Kansas. This is not Bill Self’s best team and the NCAA ruling that freshman Ben McLemore is ineligible is a big hit. But Tyshawn Taylor and Thomas Robinson should be enough to get the Jayhawks back into contention for a Big 12 title.
19) Wisconsin. On paper, this isn’t Wisconsin’s best team, but Po Ryan has consistently put out winning teams during his tenure, so don’t expect anything else. They do have Jordan Taylor, who is one of—if not the best—guards in the nation.
20) California. Probably the Pac-12 favorite after Arizona's off-season troubles (top three scorers are all gone--one to the NBA, one transferred to be closer to home, one was shot at his mom's funeral), so the Golden Bears are poised to take the Pac-12. They return four starters and coach Montgomery is used to successful teams in the Bay Area. Jorge Gutierrez (14.6 ppg) is one of those guys who seems to have been there for 10 years, but he's back along with Pac-10 Freshman of the Year Allen Crabbe (13.4 ppg). They also return Harper Kemp (14.2 ppg).
National Championship: UNC over Kentucky
Five Freshmen to Watch: Austin Rivers (Duke), Anthony Davis (Kentucky), Andrew Drummond(UConn), Josiah Turner (Arizona), Cody Zeller (Indiana)
First Team All-America:G- Jordon Taylor (Wisconsin)
G- Ashton Gibbs (Pitt)
F- Harrison Barnes (UNC)
F- Terrence Jones (Kentucky)
C- Jared Sullinger (Ohio State, Player of the Year) (left)
Second Team All-America:
G- Tu Holloway (Xavier)
G- John Jenkins (Vanderbilt)
F- Will Barton (Memphis)
F- Kris Joseph (Syracuse)
C- Perry Jones (Baylor)
Third Team All-America:
G- Scoop Jardine (Syracuse)
G- Kendall Marshall (UNC)
F- Trevor Mbakwe (Minnesota)
F- Perry Jones (Baylor)
C- Andrew Drummond (UConn)
Fourth Team All-America:
G- Jorge Gutierrez (Cal)
G- Kenny Boynton (Florida)
F- JaMychal Green (Alabama)
F- Yancy Gates (Cincinnati)
C- Josh Smith (UCLA)
Honorable Mention: Tyshawn Taylor (Kansas), Tyler Zeller (UNC), John Henson (UNC), Peyton Siva (Louisville), Robbie Hummel (Purdue), Jeremy Lamb (UConn)
Five teams that are sleepers:
1) Drexel. The Colonial Athletic Association favorites return their 2010-11 leaders in scoring, rebounding, assists, steals and blocks. The duo of Samme Givens (12.2 ppg, 10.1 rpg) and Chris Fouch (14.9 ppg, 3.4 rpg) should be enough to have the Dragons contending for the CAA title, but it will be the growth of promising sophomores Dartaye Ruffin (8.4 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 89 orb) and Frantz Massenat (5.5 ppg, 3.3 rpg). This team won 21 games last year despite the youth movement and losing two key players off the previous year's team, so the return of the bulk of the roster should lead to many more wins and perhaps some surprises in March.
2) Marshall. The Thundering Herd get overlooked because they play in the same league as Memphis, but don’t count Marshall out of the C-USA picture quite yet. They truly do not have a weakness on their roster. Last year they won 22 games and return a backcourt composed of C-USA freshman of the year DeAndre Kane (15.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg), guard Damier Pitts (right) (16.2 ppg, 4.7 apg), Shaquille Johnson (8.7 ppg) and sharp-shooter Dago Pena (7.2 ppg). Johnson and Pena both had injuries that hampered their minutes, so both should see those numbers increase. Talented freshmen Chris Martin and Devince Boykin will also play a big role in the backcourt. Down low they will look to JC-transfers Dennis Tinnon (13.7 ppg, 10.7 rpg) and Robert Goff (9.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg), along with junior Nigel Spikes (5.1 ppg, 5.9 rpg).3) UNLV. This team is good, but you’d never know it if you didn’t follow the Mountain West real closely last year. While the Runnin’ Rebels were left in the shadows thanks to BYU, San Diego St. and New Mexico enjoying unparalleled success, UNLV quietly won 24 games. They return most of the scoring and rebounding of that team, making them a team to beat in the MWC. Their defense is good, plus they play an up-tempo style that is fun to watch. Senior point guard Oscal Bellfield (11.2 ppg, 3.7 apg) and Anthony Marshall (9.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 3.0 apg) return in the backcourt, giving the Rebels plenty of experience. Down low they feature 6’8” senior Chace Stanback (13.0 ppg, 5.9 rpg) and 6’8” UCLA transfer Mike Moser. They could sneak up on quite a few teams.
4) Rutgers. Like a few of the other teams on this list, Rutgets is young. Real young. Seven of their scholarship players are freshmen (verses only two seldom-used seniors), and while they are talented, they are sure to go through some growing pains. However, between Jerome Seagers and Myles Mack they should find a solid point guard. Add in the return of two of their top three scores in Gilydas Biruta (9.6 ppg, 6.5 rpg) and Dane Miller (9.2 ppg, 6.1 rpg) and the Scarlet Knights might see some success this season.
5) Wichita State. The defending NIT champions—who, by the way, rolled through the tournament, beating NCAA tournament snub Virginia Tech on the road, Washington State by 31 and Alabama in New York city—are back with five of their top six scorers off last season’s roster. The Shockers even held eventual champion UConn close in Maui, losing 83-79 after leading with two minutes left. With Creighton and Indiana State their major competition in the Missouri Valley Conference, look for the Shockers to make a run to the NCAA tournament if they can stay healthy. They have balance in the backcourt with seniors Toure Murry (9.4 ppg, 4.5 rpg) and David Kyles (9.3 ppg, 2.8 rpg), plus 7-foot senior center Garrett Stutz (7.2 ppg, 3.5 rpg) back and a host of other players averaging around those numbers. They may not be house hold names, but they are balanced and experienced.
Predicted order of finish by conference:
ACC: North Carolina, Duke, Florida State, Miami, Virginia, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Maryland, NC State, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Boston College
Big 12: Baylor, Texas A&M, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Iowa State
Big East: UConn, Syracuse, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Villanova, Marquette, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Georgetown, Rutgers, St. John’s, Seton Hall, Providence, South Florida, DePaul
Big Ten: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Penn State, Nebraska, Northwestern, Iowa
Pac-12: California, UCLA, Washington, Oregon, Washington State, Arizona, USC, Stanford, Oregon State, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah
SEC: (EAST) Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina (WEST) Alabama, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Ole Miss, LSU, Auburn
