Top 20:
1) North Carolina. The Tar Heels are loaded this year, as they return Player of the Year Tyler Hansbrough (22.6 ppg, 10.2 rpg) who is the perennial favorite to repeat as POY. They have an excellent backcourt in guards Ty Lawson (12.7 ppg, 5.2 apg) and Wayne Ellington (16.6 ppg, 2.0 apg), and have added the depth that they lacked last year by adding a great freshman class led by forwards Ed Davis and Tyler Zeller. But the key is that they return all starters from last year, plus some key players off the bench.
2) Connecticut. Seven-foot-three center Hasheem Thabeet (left) (10.5 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 4.5 bpg) leads the way for the Huskies, but how far UConn goes may depend on if Thabeet can improve and dominate on the offensive side of the ball. UConn returns other top players in forward Jeff Adrien (14.8 ppg, 9.1 rpg), guard A.J. Price (14.5 ppg, 5.8 apg) and guard Jerome Dyson (12.5 ppg, 3.6 rpg). They bring in some freshman who could challenge for playing time, most notably is guard Kemba Walker who will be a dynamite player once he improves his shooting.3) Louisville. The Cardinals lost star David Padgett, but return a balance of scoring in forwards Earl Clark (11.1 ppg, 8.1 rpg) and Terrence Williams (11.1 ppg, 7.2 rpg). Their backcourt is solid with Edgar Sosa (7.6 ppg) and Jerry Smith (10.7 ppg) returning to run the show. But the key to the year might hinge on freshman forward Samardo Samuels, who will try to make up for what the Cardinals lost in Padgett.
4) UCLA. The Bruins lost quite a bit off last year’s team with the departure of starters Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. But the Bruins don’t rebuild; they reload. In comes the top-ranked recruiting class that will challenge for playing time right away, led by two-guard Jrue Holiday and center J’mison Morgan. Behind senior Darren Collison (14.5 ppg, 3.8 apg) will be freshman stud Jerime Anderson. Senior Josh Shipp (12.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg) also returns for UCLA.
5) Duke. The Blue Devils return four starters from last season, and bring in a solid recruiting class led by Elliot Williams who will immediately vie for playing time. Kyle Singler (13.3 ppg, 5.8 rpg), Gerald Henderson (12.7, 4.7 rpg) will lead Duke up front, while sharp-shooter Jon Scheyer (11.7 ppg) and senior point guard Greg Paulus (11.4 ppg, 3.2 apg) return in the backcourt.
6) Texas. The Longhorns will need to replace D.J. Augustine (19.2 ppg, 5.8 apg) at point guard, but other than Augustine Texas returns the rest of their starting lineup and most of their bench. But who will fill Augustine’s role? A.J. Abrams (16.5 ppg) will need to step up immediately, but the Longhorns some heat might need to be picked up by freshman J’Covan Brown. Damion James (13.2 ppg) and Connor Atchley (9.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg) return as the Longhorns look to capture a Big 12 title.
7) Michigan State. The only difference between the situation of the Spartans and Texas is the lack of depth that Michigan State has comparatively. Both lost key point guards, with Michigan State looking to replace the clutch Drew Neitzel (13.9 ppg, 4.0 apg), but they do return Raymar Morgan (14.0 ppg, 6.1 rpg) and Kalin Lucas (10.3 ppg, 3.8 apg). However, the reason the Spartans are ranked below the Longhorns don’t have the depth the Longhorns do, despite playing in a weaker conference than Texas.
8) Gonzaga. Every year it looks like Gonzaga’s year to get back to their old form and make it past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, and this year is no exception. The Bulldogs have depth like they’ve never seen before, and return all the key scorers off last year’s team. They did lose the heart of their team in David Pendergraft, but return point guard Jeremy Pargo (12.1 ppg, 6.0 apg) and shooting guard Matt Bouldin (12.6 ppg, 3.7 rpg) who were the top two scorers last year. Austin Daye (10.5 ppg) is going to be the next star at Gonzaga, and senior Josh Heytvelt (10.3 ppg, 4.9 rpg) has the potential to do some real damage inside. From top to bottom, this balanced Gonzaga team will be ready to challenge for a Final Four spot. But will this be the year they live up to expectations?
9) Pittsburgh. If it were based on pure skill, the Panthers would be much higher. But they play in the toughest conference in the country, and therefore will lose some games this year and inevitably drop in the rankings to this position. They return their top three scorers from last season in Sam Young (18.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg), Levance Fields (11.9 ppg) and DeJuan Blair (11.6 ppg, 9.1 rpg). But their lack of depth is what will ultimately lead to a third place finish in the Big East for them this year.
10) Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish will be a two-man show this year, with Luke Harangody (left) (20.4 ppg, 10.6 rpg) and sharp-shooting Kyle McAlarney (15.1 ppg, 3.5 apg) most likely being candidates for the All-Big East team. Harangody has a chance not only to be Big East POY, but also national POY. Notre Dame will live and die by the success (or failure) of Harangody and McAlarney11) Oklahoma. The Sooners fate will rest in the hands of sophomore POY candidate Blake Griffin (14.7 ppg, 9.1 rpg). Oklahoma does return Tony Crocker (11.3 ppg) and Austin Johnson (8.6 ppg), but beyond that trio, there isn’t much depth. Keep an eye out for freshman Willie Warren—he’s a really solid shooter who is pretty strong for a shooting guard.
12) Tennessee. How will the Vols replace All-Everything guard Chris Lofton and his 15.5 ppg? Well, Tyler Smith & Co. will need to step up. Do they have the talent? Yes. Smith (13.6 ppg, 6.7 rpg) will lead the charge and will be backed up by Wayne Chism (9.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg), J.P. Prince (8.0 ppg) and freshman Scotty Hopson who will make a major impact in the SEC.
13) Purdue. The Boilermakers were picked by Big Ten coaches to win their first conference title since 1996, but it all depends on the shooting. Purdue led the Big Ten in 3-point percentage (39.6) last year, totaling 151 treys, but you can either live or die with 3-point shooters. E’Twaun Moore (43.4% from 3-point land), Robbie Hummel (the pre-season pick for Big Ten MVP) and Keaton Grant (44% from 3-point land) all return. But the Boilermakers lack inside depth. Can they shoot their way to a Big Ten title?
14) Memphis. It’s almost like a revolving door of talent that comes through Memphis. The Tigers will need to replace 33 ppg lost between Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose who are now playing on the next level. But they return bigh man Robert Dozier (9.2 ppg, 6.8 rpg) and welcome one the nation’s top freshmen in Tyreke Evans, who is a big-time scorer.
15) Marquette. The Golden Eagles are going to be undersized this year, but talented in the backcourt. They return four starters from last year, including their top four scorers including Jarel McNeal (14.9 ppg), Dominic James (12.9 ppg), Lazar Hayward (12.8 ppg) and Wesley Matthews (11.3 ppg). The key for the Golden Eagles will be how fast they learn Buzz Williams’ new system after coach Tom Crean left for Indiana.
16) Arizona State. The Sun Devils will look to upend perennial favorite UCLA this year by returning all five starters off last year’s team. Most notably are James Harden (17.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Jeff Pendergraph (12.4 ppg, 6.4 rpg) who are both contenders for the All-Conference team. Harden could even win the Pac-10 POY award.
17) Florida. The Gators would have been higher, but this past week Jai Lucas decided to leave the program and transfer. That’s eight transfers since the 2003 season that have left Gainesville. However, Nick Calathes (right) (15.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 6.1 apg) is the complete player, and at 6’6” he can be an impact player at multiple positions on any given night. Walter Hodge (10.4 ppg) and Dan Werner (9.1 ppg, 6.4 rpg) return for the Gators. Freshmen Kenny Kadji and Eloy Vargas could step up right away for the Gators and will add some much-needed depth. Also, keep an eye on Chandler Parsons—someone who I think will have a breakout season.18) Washington. The Huskies are tough to read. They return big man Jon Brockman (17.8 ppg, 11.6 rpg), guard Quincy Pondexter (9.9 ppg), and Justin Dentmon (9.8 ppg). They also bring in a great freshman class that includes Isaiah Thomas who can score in bunches, Tyreese Breshers who is a great rebounder, Scott Suggs who has good height for his position, and Elston Turner who can create off the dribble.
19) Wake Forest. Not only do the Demon Deacons return their top nine scorers off last year’s squad—including James Johnson (14.6 ppg, 8.1 rpg) and Jeff Teague (13.9 ppg)—but Wake brings in one of the top recruiting classes in the nation. Ty Walker, Al-Farouq Aminu and Tony Woods will all make an immediate impact. If it weren’t for playing in one of the toughest conferences in the nation, Wake would be ranked higher. These guys have the talent, but might be a year away from being a Final Four contender.
20) USC. The Trojans will need to replace their top two scorers last season (O.J. Mayo and Davon Jefferson) who combined for nearly 33 ppg last season, but return Dwight Lewis and Taj Gibson who are both primed to make “the leap” this season and become star players. Gibson is a talented big man who can score (10.8 ppg) and rebound (7.8 rpg), while Lewis can play multiple positions, and still find points (10.8 ppg). USC will welcome Demar DeRozan who might be the most athletic freshman in the nation, if not the most talented.
Top Five Conferences (in order): Big East, ACC, Pac-10, SEC, Big 12
National Championship: North Carolina over Connecticut
Five Freshmen to Watch: Brandon Jennings (Arizona), Samardo Samuels (Louisville), Scotty Hopson (Tennessee), Tyreke Evans (Memphis), B.J. Mullens (Ohio State)
First Team All-America:G – Darren Collison (UCLA)
G – Stephen Curry (Davidson)
F – Tyler Smith (Tennessee)
F – Luke Harangody (Notre Dame)
C – Tyler Hansbrough (North Carolina) Player of the Year (left)
Second Team All-America:
G – Ty Lawson (North Carolina)
G – James Harden (Arizona St.)
F – Chase Budinger (Arizona)
F – Blake Griffin (Oklahoma)
C – Hasheem Thabeet (Connecticut)
Third Team All-America:
G – Patrick Mills (St. Mary's)
G – Tyrese Rice (Boston College)
F – Jon Brockman (Washington)
F – Damion James (Texas)
C – DeJuan Blair (Pittsburgh)
Fourth Team All-America:G – Jeremy Pargo (Gonzaga) (left)
G – Tyreke Evans (Memphis)
F – Samardo Samuels (Louisville)
F – Raymar Morgan (Michigan St.)
C – A.J. Ogilvy (Vanderbilt)
Honorable Mention: Patrick Patterson (Kentucky), Sam Young (Pittsburgh), Dominic James (Marquette), Wayne Ellington (North Carolina), Gerald Henderson (Duke), Jonny Flynn (Syracuse), A.J. Abrams (Texas)
Five teams that are sleepers:
1) Washington. The Huskies aren’t predicted to do well in the Pac-10, but Washington has loads of talent and could turn quite a few heads. Jon Brockman is the go-to player, Quincy Pondexter is going to have a breakout season, Isaiah Thomas can flat-out score, and Lorenzo Romar is one of the nation’s top coaches.
2) Kansas. How can the defending national champions be considered a sleeper? How about losing almost every major player off last year’s team. But, the Jayhawks bring in a solid recruiting class (five four-star athletes) to add to the two from the year before, and the Jayhawks will be young but talented. Watch for freshman Travis Releford to step up into a major scoring role.
3) Southern Illinois. Anthony Booker, Bryan Mullins and Josh Bone will step up, and Kevin Dillard is a very good recruit. Take this into account with the Missouri Valley Conference, and look for Southern Illinois make a splash during March.
4) San Diego. This team surprised everyone by topping Gonzaga and St. Mary’s last season for the WCC crown. This season more will be expected, but the Toreros will take a back seat to those two teams until they prove they can consistently compete with them. With their top four scorers returning, including Brandon Johnson (right) (16.9 ppg, 3.5 apg) and Gyno Pomare (14.1 ppg, 7.4 rpg), San Diego has inside-outside balance.5) West Virginia. Can the Mountaineers win without Joe Alexander? That will be the defining question this season. But they bring in Devin Ebanks who can, along with fellow freshman Kevin Jones, take over a game. They play in the toughest conference in the nation, so they will have to grow up quickly, but they have the talent to compete.
Predicted finishes by coneference:
ACC: North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Miami, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Maryland, Georgia Tech, N.C. St., Boston College, Florida St., Virginia
Big 12: Texas, Oklahoma, Baylor, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Oklahoma St., Kansas St., Texas Tech, Nebraska, Colorado, Iowa St.
Big East: Connecticut, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova, West Virginia, Syracuse, Providence, Cincinnati, Rutgers, Seaton Hall, S. Florida, DePaul, St. John’s
Big Ten: Michigan St., Purdue, Ohio St., Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan, Penn. St., Northwestern, Iowa, Indiana
Pac-10: UCLA, Arizona St., Washington, USC, Arizona, Washington St., Oregon, California, Stanford, Oregon St.
SEC: (EAST) Tennessee, Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Georgia; (WEST) LSU, Alabama, Ole Miss., Auburn, Arkansas, Miss. St.
