Monday, December 31, 2007

NFC Playoff Preview

(1) Dallas Cowboys
Record: 13-3
Record vs. 2007 Playoff teams: 4-2
Coach: Wade Phillips (61-45, 0 Super Bowls)
Total Offense: 365.7 ypg (3rd)
Total Defense: 307.6 (9th)

(2) Green Bay Packers
Record: 13-3
Record vs. 2007 Playoff teams: 3-1
Coach: Mike McCarthy (21-11, 0 Super Bowls)
Total Offense: 370.7 ypg (2nd)
Total Defense: 313.3 (11th)

(3) Seattle Seahawks
Record: 10-6
Record vs. 2007 Playoff teams: 1-1
Coach: Mike Holmgren (169-109, 1 Super Bowl)
Total Offense: 348.9 (9th)
Total Defense: 321.8 (15th)

(4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 9-7
Record vs. 2007 Playoff teams: 2-3
Coach: Jon Gruden (91-77, 1 Super Bowl)
Total Offense: 326.8 (18th)
Total Defense: 278.4 (2nd)

(5) New York Giants
Record: 10-6
Record vs. 2007 Playoff teams: 1-5
Coach: Tom Coughlin (107-95, 0 Super Bowls)
Total Offense: 331.4 (16th)
Total Defense: 305 ypg (7th)

(6) Washington Redskins
Record: 9-7
Record vs. 2007 Playoff teams: 2-5
Coach: Joe Gibbs (171-100, 4 Super Bowls)
Total Offense: 333.4 (15th)
Total Defense: 305.2 (8th)

AFC Playoff Preview

(1) New England Patriots
Record: 16-0
Record vs. 2007 Playoff teams: 6-0
Coach: Bill Belichick (140-84, 3 Super Bowls)
Total Offense: 411.2 ypg (1st)
Total Defense: 288.3 ypg (4th)

(2) Indianapolis Colts
Record: 13-3
Record vs. 2007 Playoff teams: 4-3
Coach: Tony Dungy (136-73, 1 Super Bowl)
Total Offense: 358.7 ypg (5th)
Total Defense: 279.7 ypg (3rd)

(3) San Diego Chargers
Record: 11-5
Record vs. 2007 Playoff teams: 2-3
Coach: Norv Turner (70-88, 0 Super Bowls)
Total Offense: 315.2 ypg (20th)
Total Defense: 320.2 ypg (14th)

(4) Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 10-6
Record vs. 2007 Playoff teams: 2-2
Coach: Mike Tomlin (10-6, 0 Super Bowls)
Total Offense: 327.4 ypg (17th)
Total Defense: 266.4 ypg (1st)

(5) Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 11-5
Record vs. 2007 Playoff teams: 4-3
Coach: Jack Del Rio (45-36, 0 Super Bowls)
Total Offense: 357.4 ypg (7th)
Total Defense: 313.8 ypg (12th)

(6) Tennessee Titans
Record: 10-6
Record vs. 2007 Playoff teams: 2-4
Coach: Jeff Fisher (120-103, 0 Super Bowls)
Total Offense: 311.7 ypg (21st)
Total Defense: 291.6 ypg (5th)

Friday, December 28, 2007

Week 17 Scores

Saturday:
New England 38, N.Y. GIANTS 35

Sunday:
ATLANTA 44, Seattle 41
CHICAGO 33, New Orleans 25
CLEVELAND 20, San Francisco 7
GREEN BAY 34, Detroit 13
Cincinnati 38, MIAMI 25
PHILADELPHIA 17, Buffalo 9
Carolina 31, TAMPA BAY 23
HOUSTON 42, Jacksonville 28
WASHINGTON 27, Dallas 6
BALTIMORE 27, Pittsburgh 21
San Diego 30, OAKLAND 17
DENVER 22, Minnesota 19 (OT)
ARIZONA 48, St. Louis 19
N.Y. JETS 13, Kansas City 10 (OT)
Tennessee 16, INDIANAPOLIS 10

Updated Playoff Picture:
NFC
Division Winners
1) Dallas Cowboys (13-3)*
2) Green Bay Packers (13-3)*
3) Seattle Seahawks (10-6)*
4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)*
Wild Card
5) New York Giants (10-6)*
6) Washington Redskins (9-7)

AFC
Division Winners
1) New England Patriots (16-0)*
2) Indianapolis Colts (13-3)*
3) San Deigo Chargers (11-5)*
4) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)*
Wild Card
5) Jacksonville Jaguars (11-5)*
6) Tennessee Titans (10-6)

* = Clinched Playoff Birth

Playoff Schedule
Saturday (January 5)
(6) Washington Redskins at (3) Seattle Seahawks (1:30 p.m., FOX)
(5) Jacksonville Jaguars at (4) Pittsburgh Steelers (5 p.m., NBC)

Sunday (January 6)
(5) New York Giants at (4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9 a.m., FOX)
(6) Tennessee Titans at (3) San Diego Chargers (1:30 p.m., NBC)

Sonics follow-up

I thought I'd show more in-depth with numbers what I meant by my last column. So here is the Sonics payroll for the next five years by player on the roster starting with who is signed on for the most money.

Wally Szczerbiak (Forward)
2007/08: $12,000,000
2008/09: $13,000,000

Kurt Thomas (Forward/Center)
2007/08: $8,091,187

Chris Wilcox (Forward)
2007/08: $6,500,000
2008/09: $6,750,000

Luke Ridnour (Guard)
2007/08: $6,500,000
2008/09: $6,500,000
2009/10: $6,500,000

Earl Watson (Guard)
2007/08: $5,800,000
2008/09: $6,200,000
2009/10: $6,600,000

Nick Collison (Forward/Center)
2007/08: $5,750,000
2008/09: $6,250,000
2009/10: $6,250,000
2010/11: $6,750,000

Kevin Durant (Guard/Forward)
2007/08: $4,171,200
2008/09: $4,484,040
2009/10: $4,796,880 (Team Option)
2010/11: $6,053,662 (Team Option)
2011/12: $7,900,029 (Qualifying Offer)

Jeff Green (Forward)
2007/08: $3,058,200
2008/09: $3,287,640
2009/10: $3,516,960 (Team Option)
2010/11: $4,455,988 (Team Option)
2011/12: $5,908,640 (Qualifying Offer)

Damien Wilkins (Guard/Forward)
2007/08: $2,900,000
2008/09: $3,100,000 (Player Option)
2009/10: $3,300,000

Robert Swift (Center)
2007/08: $2,601,112
2008/09: $3,579,131 (Qualifying Offer)

Saer Sene (Center)
2007/08: $2,105,520
2008/09: $2,252,400
2009/10: $2,871,810 (Team Option)
2010/11: $3,911,405 (Qualifying Offer)

Delonte West (Guard)
2007/08: $1,889,759
2008/09: $2,762,828 (Qualifying Offer)

Johan Petro (Center)
2007/08: $1,077,120
2008/09: $1,939,893
2009/10: $2,849,702 (Qualifying Offer)

Mickael Gelabale (Forward)
2007/08: $802,000

Team Total Signed Salaries:
2007/08: $63,246,298
2008/09: $53,763,973
2009/10: $22,650,000
2010/11: $6,750,000
2011/12: $0

The salary cap for the 2007/08 season is $55,630,000 meaning the Sonics are about $6,500,000 over. However, the luxury tax starts at $67,865,000 meaning the Sonics aren't really that close to that either.

Tuesday, December 25, 2007

Sonics are going to get better, but will Seattle see it?

It certainly wasn't pretty for the Portland TrailBlazers who topped the Seattle SuperSonics 89-79 on Christmas evening to extend their winning streak to 11 games.

The hottest team in the NBA is just a few years removed from being known as the "JailBlazers," and is a model of how the Sonics are trying to improve: young talent.

After getting rid of aging and overpaid guys with questionable character, the TrailBlazers have decided to invest in young guys with draft picks. The Sonics, who are now 8-20, are trying to do the same thing.

The Blazers drafted Martell Webster, then traded for Jarrett Jack in the 2005 draft. In the 2006 draft the Blazers made six draft day trades two eventually acquire LaMarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy, Alexander Johnson, Raef LaFrentz, Dan Dickau, and three future picks. Last June in the 2007 draft, the Blazers got the No. 1 pick which they used on Greg Oden, who has been hyped since he was in junior high. Portland then used the rest of their picks to get Rudy Fernández, Petteri Koponen, Josh McRoberts, and Taurean Green.

Now that is an overhaul of the roster.

Meanwhile, the Sonics are trying to mirror that strategy. After spending most of their draft picks on project centers (see: Robert Swift in 2004; Johan Petro and Lawrence Roberts in 2005; and Mouhamed Sene in 2006) and unproven guards (see: Andre Emmett and David Young in 2004; and Denham Brown and Yotam Halperin in 2006), the Sonics have finally decided to draft proven players.

In last 2007 draft, the Sonics picked Kevin Durant (No. 2 overall). Then they traded their second round pick (Glen Davis) and Ray Allen to the Boston Celtics for Jeff Green (No. 5 overall pick), Delonte West, Wally Szczerbiak, and a future second round pick.

Then the Sonics traded their other first round pick (Carl Landry) to the Houston Rockets for a future pick and money.

That left the Sonics with two rookies in Durant and Green who some think are the future of the NBA. Some even think when Durant is done, he might be the best player in NBA history.

Durant takes care of the small forward position. Kurt Thomas, Nick Collison and Chris Wilcox will be rotating in and out with Green for different combinations of power forward and center.

That leaves the guard play where the Sonics have three average-to-below-average point guards in Luke Ridnour, Delonte West and Earl Watson. Ridnour and Watson have been rumored in trades all season, which would be a great thing for the Sonics to unload at least one of those guys, but there aren't a lot of team looking for overpaid average point guards.

The shooting guard position is filled by Szczerbiak and Damien Wilkins. Szczerbiak has been streaky this year, but Wilkins has been consistent.

Overall, the point guard play has killed the Sonics, as has the lack of a true center. But the future looks promising with Durant and Green, plus this scenario:

In the upcoming 2008 NBA draft, the Sonics will have four picks (one first round pick from the Phoenix Suns; one second round pick from the Orlando Magic). If the Sonics can draft a proven point guard (such as Eric Gordon, O.J. Mayo or Derrick Rose) with the lottery pick, then draft a solid late first round pick (such as D.J. White, Brandon Rush or Tyler Hansbrough) the Sonics looked poised to make a run in the near future.

Then that gives Seattle the flexibility to package one or both of those second round picks to other teams for players, or use them on players who fall to the second round. One of those second round picks will be an early one where they could draft someone such as Joey Dorsey, Malik Hairston or Sean Singletary. The other pick will probably be later in the second round where Chris Lofton might be waiting.

The one problem with a trade is they have Ridnour's $6.5 million contract hanging over their heads, along with Watson's $5.8 million contract until 2010. Ouch.

Luckily Thomas' $8 million contract expires at the end of this season, opening some cap room for the Sonics to make a serious push at a top-notch free agent. Also, Szczerbiak's $13 million contract ends at the end of next season which makes it appealing to teams who will be looking for a shooter for one year, then dump his contract at the end for a 2009 free agent push (a team that is aging and average-to-below-average like the Sacramento Kings or Charlotte Bobcats).

The 2008 unrestricted free agent list includes Antawn Jamison, Chris Duhon, DeSagana Diop, Baron Davis, Elton Brand, Sam Cassell, Jermaine O'Neal, Steve Francis, Stephon Marbury, Shawn Marion and Ron Artest. And those are just the unrestricted free agents.

Let's say the Sonics make an announcement saying they're staying in Seattle eliminating any worries for potential free agents that their home is unstable, then Seattle gets a top five draft pick in the 2008 draft (very reasonable) which they use on Rose. They then use their late first round pick on Rush. That gives them a solid, young backcourt. They then pick up Hairston and Lofton with their second round picks. That gives them two solid point guards and two solid shooting guards to run the show.

Then let's say Seattle makes a run at Diop (decent center that will add depth) then saves up the rest of the money (which after Diop will be about $10 million). Let's add that $10 million to the $12 million the Sonics will save after Szczerbiak's contract runs out in 2009 for a run at Ben Gordon. So here's how it could play out:

The 2008-09 Sonics roster
PG- Rose, Lofton, Ridnour, Watson
SG- Wilkins, Szczerbiak, Hairston
SF- Durant, Rush
PF- Collison, Green
C- Diop, Wilcox, Petro

Contracts that expire after the 2009 season: Petro, Szczerbiak, Durant, Green, Sene and Wilcox.

Durant, Green and Sene have a team option to pick up their contracts for two more years (which, barring injury, they will do). So the Sonics will then resign Wilcox to an equal contract to what he makes now ($6.75 million per year). After all those deals, the Sonics payroll will be up to $36,685,352. If they draft Rose it will be about $4 million more, then Rush for $3 million, Hairston for about $2 million and Lofton for $1.5 million, which is about $10.5 million in rookie contracts. This year's payroll is $63,246,298, so to match this payroll the Sonics can spend $16,060,946 on free agents.

At that point, the Sonics could make a push for a very good center or power forward (Elton Brand or Lamar Odom), or go for the best player available (Gordon or Arenas). Let's say the Sonics go after Gordon because the Bulls are dismantling and starting over (as are the Wizards, but Arenas probably wants a big-market team). Before draft picks the Sonics would look like this:

The 2009-10 Sonics roster:
PG- Rose, Lofton, Ridnour, Watson
SG- Gordon, Wilkins, Hairston
SF- Durant, Rush
PF- Green, Collison
C- Diop, Wilcox, Sene

That's a starting five of Derrick Rose, Ben Gordon, Kevin Durant, Jeff Green and DeSagana Diop. With Chris Lofton, Damien Wilkins, Malik Hairston, Brandon Rush, Nick Collison and Chris Wilcox coming off the bench, along with Luke Ridnour and Earl Watson. Plus whomever they got in the 2009 draft.

Hopefully at that point the Sonics will be middle of the road for the 2009 draft--meaning they could either get a lottery pick (1-13) or be somewhere around 14-17. Since they're in the Western Conference (a.k.a. the tougher conference), they'll probably be around 10-15. Then they can work on their weaknesses--including taking a risk on a guard for the post-Rindour and Watson era (with Gerald Henderson, Sherron Collins, Jeremy Pargo or Jerryd Bayless) or improve at center (with Andrew Ogilvy or Sam Young).

All of a sudden, the Sonics are competitive again with young talent. Your young guys are signed on through 2011, the franchise is saved and is in Seattle...and best of all? After the 2010 season the Sonics will unload the contracts of Ridnour and Watson (combined $13 million).

That gives the Sonics even more money to work with and, of course, they still have the lingering picks from the Houston and Boston trades which they could move in a trade of their own.

Of course, this is all hypothetical and knowing the Sonics, they'll resign Szczerbiak for even more money that he's worth and all this will be void. Oh well.

Friday, December 21, 2007

Pargo needs to step up and become 'go-to' player

Dan Dickau. Blake Stepp. Adam Morrison. Derek Raivio.

After nearly a decade of "go-to" players leading the charge for the Gonzaga Bulldogs, the Zags are searching for that next guy.

Welcome, Jeremy Pargo.

The 6'2" guard from Chicago, who has an older brother in the NBA, needs to become that player. In reality, he's the only option.

The Zags have two seniors: David Pendergraft, who is a tremendous vocal leader, isn't the guy you want shooting in the clutch; and Abdullahi Kuso, who can't make a shot that is longer than five feet out.

That leaves juniors Pargo and "leader" Josh Heytvelt who was arrested and suspended last season for drug possession. Heytvelt, still recovering from an off-season injury, has not looked the same this season.

Meanwhile, Pargo kept the Bulldogs in the game Thursday in Ford Arena, hitting shot after shot against the Oklahoma Sooners in Oklahoma City. In fact, at one point Pargo had 12 points in a row for the Zags during a 12-5 run that gave Gonzaga the lead with a little over two minutes left.

From a nasty crossover drive, to pulling up for three after grabbing a rebound, Pargo showed signs that he is going to be the next great Zag. However, he went cold once the game hit the two minute mark.

Pargo aired a deep three pointer, then was blocked as he tried to tie the game with a three pointer with five seconds left.

The 72-68 loss at the hands of the unranked Sooniers is one the Zags can learn from. When the tournament time comes around, the Zags will need for a player to step it up in the clutch and lead them to the second weekend--something Gonzaga has had little success of lately. Pargo will be that guy.

When he hits that shot, we can look back at Thursday's career high 28-point performance that was all-for-naught because of his inability to score under two minutes.

Then we can see how much he's grown into his new role.

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Williams, Young the right choices

He’s a can’t miss. He’s the best player in college football ever. The Houston Texans were idiotic for not choosing him. This is Sam Bowie/Michael Jordan all over again.

Two years later the “he,” Reggie Bush, is now sidelined with a slightly torn posterior cruciate ligament. Bush is the 36th leading rusher in NFL this season, accumulating just over 48 yards per game and scoring only four touchdowns.

Through two years, Bush’s career has been nothing short of disappointing. He has as many fumbles as he does rushing touchdowns (10), he has averaged only 3.7 yard per carry, and his longest run in two years? 22 yards.

Meanwhile Mario Williams, Houston’s No. 1 pick, has nine-and-a-half sacks this season, including three-and-a-half in the last two weeks.

Williams has been an anchor on the up-and-coming Texans’ defense that went from the 30th ranked defense the year before Williams, to the 28th ranked defense last year, and now is the 21st this year. His 14 sacks and 93 tackles in his two-year career have statistically dominated Bush’s on offense.

I will be the first to admit, I did not see this coming. On our radio show, my co-host Sean Blackburn and I spent more time arguing for Bush than we have for any other athlete. When we heard the Texans had reached a draft-day deal with Williams, we were shocked.

But since Williams was drafted, the Texans have steadily improved. In 2005, the year before Williams became a Texan, Houston went 2-14. Williams’ rookie year the Texans went 6-10. This season they have already matched last year’s six wins, but they still have three games left to improve on it.

The Saints made a playoff run last season that ended short of the Super Bowl, but this season have been inconsistent at best. They too are 6-7, but are considerably worse than last season.

Even the third pick, Tennessee Titans’ Vince Young, has been significantly better than Bush. Tennessee went 4-12 the year before Young, went 8-8 Young’s rookie season, and are 7-6 in Young’s sophomore campaign.

Young has passed for over 4,200 yards and rushed for nearly 900 yards in the 28 games he’s played in, and has 19 passing touchdowns to go along 10 rushing touchdowns. He can beat you with his arm or legs. Sure he turns the ball over too much, but he can beat you in so many ways.

I think it’s clear, two years later, that Bush was the bust while Williams and Young were to become stars.

Monday, December 10, 2007

Links for this week

This is the second batch of links, and I think I've found a rhythm where I'll post links every other Monday or so. Quick comment on the weekend, Tim Tebow won the Heisman, the Seahawks won the NFC West for the fourth-straight year, and the Patriots remained unbeaten. I'll probably post two or three times this week, then we're starting to gear up for college hoops conference play and college football bowl season. On to the links:

We will start off with the insane: New York Knicks owner James Dolan is reportedly saying that head coach Isaiah Thomas' job is safe. This after the Knicks lose two-straight games to the Philadelphia 76ers which gave the Sixers their first winning streak of the season. I, for one, am proud to say I started a "Fire Thomas" chant in Madison Square Garden when I attended a Knicks/Bobcats game last January. Apparently it's gotten so bad, MSG has started to play music to try and drown out those very same chants. The New York Observer wrote a good article about the state of the New York Knicks and how covering the Knicks isn't much better.

Let's move over to the weird. What do you get when you have a half-eaten corn cob, near empty bottle of Coca-Cola, and one single French fry? Enough for an auction apparently.

The Patriots are now 13-0, thanks to a 34-13 thrashing of the Pittsburgh Steelers. But you'd never guess what I found on the internet. Patriots coach Bill Belichick in his old Cleveland Brown days with an instructional video that will leave you speechless. Don't worry, it shows up about 30 seconds in.

Billionaire Donald Trump has an idea for his new business venture: build the "world's greatest golf course."

Time to catch up real quickly with one former athlete and one current athlete. This is a sad article about Texas great Earl Campbell, who is a shining example of why the NFL needs to support its retired players. The second is a great feature on Kobe.

It's Bowl Season, which means it's time to hand out the Heisman Award. Tim Tebow was the winner, but it looks like this was a long-time coming.

That leads me to our final links, which are from YouTube. The first is one of the coolest hockey goals I've ever seen. Nine-year-old Max Gerlach scored with a nifty move that left many in awe at a recent Senators/Stars NHL hockey game. The second is a video of how they celebrate touchdowns in the CFL. Not only did it bounce to an unfortunate place, but he got a penalty for it too.

Thursday, December 6, 2007

Cougs/Zags: A rivalry for the future

Oh what a difference a year can make.

Take last year: Gonzaga and the University of Washington were throwing jabs about the end of the annual GU/UW game that had become so big over the 10 years it showcased the teams. But GU won eight of them.

“You know, if we were ever in a situation where we lost seven of the last eight games, I’d probably look to get rid of that team,” Gonzaga’s head coach Mark Few said. “I don’t blame then at all.”

Ouch.

The rift was started between the two coaching staffs after Gonzaga leaked a report that UW assistant Cameron Dollar had made illegal contact with future-Zag Josh Heytvelt five years ago. UW was furious that the Zags wouldn’t confront them directly. Then, with both teams battling for state supremacy, had a number of other recruiting wars including Phil Nelson (who went to the Huskies) and Robert Sacre (now a Zag).

But that was then. And this is now.

The Washington State Cougars know how much a year can change things. After being the punching bag of the Pac-10 for so many years, the Cougs were turned around last season when they finished second in the Pac-10 regular season and ended the regular season ranked No. 11 in the nation (AP).

Meanwhile, the Huskies were relegated to “rebuilding” status as they finished No. 7 in the Pac-10.

Which brings us to the now. And you know what? I think the WSU/GU rivalry is better for college hoops now. Not only are the schools closer in location, but they’re also closer in talent level.

Case and point, last night’s 51-47 Cougar win over the Zags, pairing two Top-25 teams for the first time in their rivalry. And with the talent level the Zags continue to bring in, and with Tony Bennett at the helm for the Cougars, it doesn’t look like either school is going to be struggling soon.

That’s why, while it’d be cool for the Zags and UW to renew their rivalry, the essential rivalry for the now is WSU and Gonzaga. Maybe next time college hoops will learn and will broadcast it on regular TV.

Wednesday, December 5, 2007

Final results from the Davis Cup

For the first time since 1995, the United States was given something to celebrate in the Davis Cup--tennis' version of the World Cup.

Andy Roddick led things off Friday night was a straight-set 6-4, 6-4, 6-2 win over Dmitry Tursunov that featured 25 aces off Roddick's racquet. Tursunov, a surprising choice considering he was the lowest-ranked player on the Russian team, never seemed comfortable in the match.

James Blake followed suit in the nightcap, shagging his reputation as an underachiever in big matches, with a four-set win over Mikhail Youzhny. The match could have gone either way, with Youzhny just three points away from taking a 2-1 lead instead of being down 2-1. But Blake came through in the clutch, admitting afterwards he wanted to prove something to the people who said he couldn't win the big matches. With the win, the Americans took a 2-0 lead into the second day.

The No. 1 ranked doubles team in the world, Bob and Mike Bryan, took on Nikolay Davydenko and Igor Andreev. Though Andreev and Davydenko kept the first set close, they were visibly frustrated in the second and third sets. The Bryan's easily won in straight sets to clinch America's 32nd Davis Cup.

The matches on Sunday were all icing on the cake. Since the match was already decided, the matches were shortened to best-of-three. Russia's Andreev pulled out a straight-set win over Bob Bryan, who replaced Roddick in the line-up. Blake ended the finals with a three-set thriller over Tursunov to give the United States a 4-1 victory over the defending champions.

Final Results:
Match 1: Andy Roddick (USA) def. Dmitry Tursunov (RUS) 6-4, 6-4, 6-2
Match 2: James Blake (USA) def. Mikhail Youzhny (RUS) 6-3, 7-6 (4), 6-7 (3) 7-6 (3)
Match 3: Bob Bryan/Mike Bryan (USA) def. Nikolay Davydenko/Igor Andreev (RUS) 7-6 (4), 6-4, 6-2
Match 4: Igor Andreev (RUS) def. Bob Bryan (USA) 6-3, 7-6 (4)
Match 5: James Blake (USA) def. Dmitry Tursunov (RUS) 1-6, 6-3, 7-5

United States def. Russia 4-1