The hottest team in the NBA is just a few years removed from being known as the "JailBlazers," and is a model of how the Sonics are trying to improve: young talent.
After getting rid of aging and overpaid guys with questionable character, the TrailBlazers have decided to invest in young guys with draft picks. The Sonics, who are now 8-20, are trying to do the same thing.
The Blazers drafted Martell Webster, then traded for Jarrett Jack in the 2005 draft. In the 2006 draft the Blazers made six draft day trades two eventually acquire LaMarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy, Alexander Johnson, Raef LaFrentz, Dan Dickau, and three future picks. Last June in the 2007 draft, the Blazers got the No. 1 pick which they used on Greg Oden, who has been hyped since he was in junior high. Portland then used the rest of their picks to get Rudy Fernández, Petteri Koponen, Josh McRoberts, and Taurean Green.
Now that is an overhaul of the roster.
Meanwhile, the Sonics are trying to mirror that strategy. After spending most of their draft picks on project centers (see: Robert Swift in 2004; Johan Petro and Lawrence Roberts in 2005; and Mouhamed Sene in 2006) and unproven guards (see: Andre Emmett and David Young in 2004; and Denham Brown and Yotam Halperin in 2006), the Sonics have finally decided to draft proven players.
In last 2007 draft, the Sonics picked Kevin Durant (No. 2 overall). Then they traded their second round pick (Glen Davis) and Ray Allen to the Boston Celtics for Jeff Green (No. 5 overall pick), Delonte West, Wally Szczerbiak, and a future second round pick.
Then the Sonics traded their other first round pick (Carl Landry) to the Houston Rockets for a future pick and money.
That left the Sonics with two rookies in Durant and Green who some think are the future of the NBA. Some even think when Durant is done, he might be the best player in NBA history.Durant takes care of the small forward position. Kurt Thomas, Nick Collison and Chris Wilcox will be rotating in and out with Green for different combinations of power forward and center.
That leaves the guard play where the Sonics have three average-to-below-average point guards in Luke Ridnour, Delonte West and Earl Watson. Ridnour and Watson have been rumored in trades all season, which would be a great thing for the Sonics to unload at least one of those guys, but there aren't a lot of team looking for overpaid average point guards.
The shooting guard position is filled by Szczerbiak and Damien Wilkins. Szczerbiak has been streaky this year, but Wilkins has been consistent.
Overall, the point guard play has killed the Sonics, as has the lack of a true center. But the future looks promising with Durant and Green, plus this scenario:
In the upcoming 2008 NBA draft, the Sonics will have four picks (one first round pick from the Phoenix Suns; one second round pick from the Orlando Magic). If the Sonics can draft a proven point guard (such as Eric Gordon, O.J. Mayo or Derrick Rose) with the lottery pick, then draft a solid late first round pick (such as D.J. White, Brandon Rush or Tyler Hansbrough) the Sonics looked poised to make a run in the near future.
Then that gives Seattle the flexibility to package one or both of those second round picks to other teams for players, or use them on players who fall to the second round. One of those second round picks will be an early one where they could draft someone such as Joey Dorsey, Malik Hairston or Sean Singletary. The other pick will probably be later in the second round where Chris Lofton might be waiting.
The one problem with a trade is they have Ridnour's $6.5 million contract hanging over their heads, along with Watson's $5.8 million contract until 2010. Ouch.
Luckily Thomas' $8 million contract expires at the end of this season, opening some cap room for the Sonics to make a serious push at a top-notch free agent. Also, Szczerbiak's $13 million contract ends at the end of next season which makes it appealing to teams who will be looking for a shooter for one year, then dump his contract at the end for a 2009 free agent push (a team that is aging and average-to-below-average like the Sacramento Kings or Charlotte Bobcats).
The 2008 unrestricted free agent list includes Antawn Jamison, Chris Duhon, DeSagana Diop, Baron Davis, Elton Brand, Sam Cassell, Jermaine O'Neal, Steve Francis, Stephon Marbury, Shawn Marion and Ron Artest. And those are just the unrestricted free agents.
Let's say the Sonics make an announcement saying they're staying in Seattle eliminating any worries for potential free agents that their home is unstable, then Seattle gets a top five draft pick in the 2008 draft (very reasonable) which they use on Rose. They then use their late first round pick on Rush. That gives them a solid, young backcourt. They then pick up Hairston and Lofton with their second round picks. That gives them two solid point guards and two solid shooting guards to run the show.Then let's say Seattle makes a run at Diop (decent center that will add depth) then saves up the rest of the money (which after Diop will be about $10 million). Let's add that $10 million to the $12 million the Sonics will save after Szczerbiak's contract runs out in 2009 for a run at Ben Gordon. So here's how it could play out:
The 2008-09 Sonics roster
PG- Rose, Lofton, Ridnour, Watson
SG- Wilkins, Szczerbiak, Hairston
SF- Durant, Rush
PF- Collison, Green
C- Diop, Wilcox, Petro
Contracts that expire after the 2009 season: Petro, Szczerbiak, Durant, Green, Sene and Wilcox.
Durant, Green and Sene have a team option to pick up their contracts for two more years (which, barring injury, they will do). So the Sonics will then resign Wilcox to an equal contract to what he makes now ($6.75 million per year). After all those deals, the Sonics payroll will be up to $36,685,352. If they draft Rose it will be about $4 million more, then Rush for $3 million, Hairston for about $2 million and Lofton for $1.5 million, which is about $10.5 million in rookie contracts. This year's payroll is $63,246,298, so to match this payroll the Sonics can spend $16,060,946 on free agents.
At that point, the Sonics could make a push for a very good center or power forward (Elton Brand or Lamar Odom), or go for the best player available (Gordon or Arenas). Let's say the Sonics go after Gordon because the Bulls are dismantling and starting over (as are the Wizards, but Arenas probably wants a big-market team). Before draft picks the Sonics would look like this:
The 2009-10 Sonics roster:
PG- Rose, Lofton, Ridnour, Watson
SG- Gordon, Wilkins, Hairston
SF- Durant, Rush
PF- Green, Collison
C- Diop, Wilcox, Sene
That's a starting five of Derrick Rose, Ben Gordon, Kevin Durant, Jeff Green and DeSagana Diop. With Chris Lofton, Damien Wilkins, Malik Hairston, Brandon Rush, Nick Collison and Chris Wilcox coming off the bench, along with Luke Ridnour and Earl Watson. Plus whomever they got in the 2009 draft.
Hopefully at that point the Sonics will be middle of the road for the 2009 draft--meaning they could either get a lottery pick (1-13) or be somewhere around 14-17. Since they're in the Western Conference (a.k.a. the tougher conference), they'll probably be around 10-15. Then they can work on their weaknesses--including taking a risk on a guard for the post-Rindour and Watson era (with Gerald Henderson, Sherron Collins, Jeremy Pargo or Jerryd Bayless) or improve at center (with Andrew Ogilvy or Sam Young).
All of a sudden, the Sonics are competitive again with young talent. Your young guys are signed on through 2011, the franchise is saved and is in Seattle...and best of all? After the 2010 season the Sonics will unload the contracts of Ridnour and Watson (combined $13 million).
That gives the Sonics even more money to work with and, of course, they still have the lingering picks from the Houston and Boston trades which they could move in a trade of their own.
Of course, this is all hypothetical and knowing the Sonics, they'll resign Szczerbiak for even more money that he's worth and all this will be void. Oh well.
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