2008-09 College Hoops Preview

It’s that time of year again! Time for my Top 20 preview, which including a team-by-team synopsis, and much more. So, without further ado, here it goes:

Top 20:
1) North Carolina. The Tar Heels are loaded this year, as they return Player of the Year Tyler Hansbrough (22.6 ppg, 10.2 rpg) who is the perennial favorite to repeat as POY. They have an excellent backcourt in guards Ty Lawson (12.7 ppg, 5.2 apg) and Wayne Ellington (16.6 ppg, 2.0 apg), and have added the depth that they lacked last year by adding a great freshman class led by forwards Ed Davis and Tyler Zeller. But the key is that they return all starters from last year, plus some key players off the bench.

2) Connecticut. Seven-foot-three center Hasheem Thabeet (left) (10.5 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 4.5 bpg) leads the way for the Huskies, but how far UConn goes may depend on if Thabeet can improve and dominate on the offensive side of the ball. UConn returns other top players in forward Jeff Adrien (14.8 ppg, 9.1 rpg), guard A.J. Price (14.5 ppg, 5.8 apg) and guard Jerome Dyson (12.5 ppg, 3.6 rpg). They bring in some freshman who could challenge for playing time, most notably is guard Kemba Walker who will be a dynamite player once he improves his shooting.

3) Louisville. The Cardinals lost star David Padgett, but return a balance of scoring in forwards Earl Clark (11.1 ppg, 8.1 rpg) and Terrence Williams (11.1 ppg, 7.2 rpg). Their backcourt is solid with Edgar Sosa (7.6 ppg) and Jerry Smith (10.7 ppg) returning to run the show. But the key to the year might hinge on freshman forward Samardo Samuels, who will try to make up for what the Cardinals lost in Padgett.

4) UCLA. The Bruins lost quite a bit off last year’s team with the departure of starters Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. But the Bruins don’t rebuild; they reload. In comes the top-ranked recruiting class that will challenge for playing time right away, led by two-guard Jrue Holiday and center J’mison Morgan. Behind senior Darren Collison (14.5 ppg, 3.8 apg) will be freshman stud Jerime Anderson. Senior Josh Shipp (12.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg) also returns for UCLA.

5) Duke. The Blue Devils return four starters from last season, and bring in a solid recruiting class led by Elliot Williams who will immediately vie for playing time. Kyle Singler (13.3 ppg, 5.8 rpg), Gerald Henderson (12.7, 4.7 rpg) will lead Duke up front, while sharp-shooter Jon Scheyer (11.7 ppg) and senior point guard Greg Paulus (11.4 ppg, 3.2 apg) return in the backcourt.

6) Texas. The Longhorns will need to replace D.J. Augustine (19.2 ppg, 5.8 apg) at point guard, but other than Augustine Texas returns the rest of their starting lineup and most of their bench. But who will fill Augustine’s role? A.J. Abrams (16.5 ppg) will need to step up immediately, but the Longhorns some heat might need to be picked up by freshman J’Covan Brown. Damion James (13.2 ppg) and Connor Atchley (9.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg) return as the Longhorns look to capture a Big 12 title.

7) Michigan State. The only difference between the situation of the Spartans and Texas is the lack of depth that Michigan State has comparatively. Both lost key point guards, with Michigan State looking to replace the clutch Drew Neitzel (13.9 ppg, 4.0 apg), but they do return Raymar Morgan (14.0 ppg, 6.1 rpg) and Kalin Lucas (10.3 ppg, 3.8 apg). However, the reason the Spartans are ranked below the Longhorns don’t have the depth the Longhorns do, despite playing in a weaker conference than Texas.

8) Gonzaga. Every year it looks like Gonzaga’s year to get back to their old form and make it past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, and this year is no exception. The Bulldogs have depth like they’ve never seen before, and return all the key scorers off last year’s team. They did lose the heart of their team in David Pendergraft, but return point guard Jeremy Pargo (12.1 ppg, 6.0 apg) and shooting guard Matt Bouldin (12.6 ppg, 3.7 rpg) who were the top two scorers last year. Austin Daye (10.5 ppg) is going to be the next star at Gonzaga, and senior Josh Heytvelt (10.3 ppg, 4.9 rpg) has the potential to do some real damage inside. From top to bottom, this balanced Gonzaga team will be ready to challenge for a Final Four spot. But will this be the year they live up to expectations?

9) Pittsburgh. If it were based on pure skill, the Panthers would be much higher. But they play in the toughest conference in the country, and therefore will lose some games this year and inevitably drop in the rankings to this position. They return their top three scorers from last season in Sam Young (18.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg), Levance Fields (11.9 ppg) and DeJuan Blair (11.6 ppg, 9.1 rpg). But their lack of depth is what will ultimately lead to a third place finish in the Big East for them this year.

10) Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish will be a two-man show this year, with Luke Harangody (left) (20.4 ppg, 10.6 rpg) and sharp-shooting Kyle McAlarney (15.1 ppg, 3.5 apg) most likely being candidates for the All-Big East team. Harangody has a chance not only to be Big East POY, but also national POY. Notre Dame will live and die by the success (or failure) of Harangody and McAlarney

11) Oklahoma. The Sooners fate will rest in the hands of sophomore POY candidate Blake Griffin (14.7 ppg, 9.1 rpg). Oklahoma does return Tony Crocker (11.3 ppg) and Austin Johnson (8.6 ppg), but beyond that trio, there isn’t much depth. Keep an eye out for freshman Willie Warren—he’s a really solid shooter who is pretty strong for a shooting guard.

12) Tennessee. How will the Vols replace All-Everything guard Chris Lofton and his 15.5 ppg? Well, Tyler Smith & Co. will need to step up. Do they have the talent? Yes. Smith (13.6 ppg, 6.7 rpg) will lead the charge and will be backed up by Wayne Chism (9.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg), J.P. Prince (8.0 ppg) and freshman Scotty Hopson who will make a major impact in the SEC.

13) Purdue. The Boilermakers were picked by Big Ten coaches to win their first conference title since 1996, but it all depends on the shooting. Purdue led the Big Ten in 3-point percentage (39.6) last year, totaling 151 treys, but you can either live or die with 3-point shooters. E’Twaun Moore (43.4% from 3-point land), Robbie Hummel (the pre-season pick for Big Ten MVP) and Keaton Grant (44% from 3-point land) all return. But the Boilermakers lack inside depth. Can they shoot their way to a Big Ten title?

14) Memphis. It’s almost like a revolving door of talent that comes through Memphis. The Tigers will need to replace 33 ppg lost between Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose who are now playing on the next level. But they return bigh man Robert Dozier (9.2 ppg, 6.8 rpg) and welcome one the nation’s top freshmen in Tyreke Evans, who is a big-time scorer.

15) Marquette. The Golden Eagles are going to be undersized this year, but talented in the backcourt. They return four starters from last year, including their top four scorers including Jarel McNeal (14.9 ppg), Dominic James (12.9 ppg), Lazar Hayward (12.8 ppg) and Wesley Matthews (11.3 ppg). The key for the Golden Eagles will be how fast they learn Buzz Williams’ new system after coach Tom Crean left for Indiana.

16) Arizona State. The Sun Devils will look to upend perennial favorite UCLA this year by returning all five starters off last year’s team. Most notably are James Harden (17.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Jeff Pendergraph (12.4 ppg, 6.4 rpg) who are both contenders for the All-Conference team. Harden could even win the Pac-10 POY award.

17) Florida. The Gators would have been higher, but this past week Jai Lucas decided to leave the program and transfer. That’s eight transfers since the 2003 season that have left Gainesville. However, Nick Calathes (right) (15.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 6.1 apg) is the complete player, and at 6’6” he can be an impact player at multiple positions on any given night. Walter Hodge (10.4 ppg) and Dan Werner (9.1 ppg, 6.4 rpg) return for the Gators. Freshmen Kenny Kadji and Eloy Vargas could step up right away for the Gators and will add some much-needed depth. Also, keep an eye on Chandler Parsons—someone who I think will have a breakout season.

18) Washington. The Huskies are tough to read. They return big man Jon Brockman (17.8 ppg, 11.6 rpg), guard Quincy Pondexter (9.9 ppg), and Justin Dentmon (9.8 ppg). They also bring in a great freshman class that includes Isaiah Thomas who can score in bunches, Tyreese Breshers who is a great rebounder, Scott Suggs who has good height for his position, and Elston Turner who can create off the dribble.

19) Wake Forest. Not only do the Demon Deacons return their top nine scorers off last year’s squad—including James Johnson (14.6 ppg, 8.1 rpg) and Jeff Teague (13.9 ppg)—but Wake brings in one of the top recruiting classes in the nation. Ty Walker, Al-Farouq Aminu and Tony Woods will all make an immediate impact. If it weren’t for playing in one of the toughest conferences in the nation, Wake would be ranked higher. These guys have the talent, but might be a year away from being a Final Four contender.

20) USC. The Trojans will need to replace their top two scorers last season (O.J. Mayo and Davon Jefferson) who combined for nearly 33 ppg last season, but return Dwight Lewis and Taj Gibson who are both primed to make “the leap” this season and become star players. Gibson is a talented big man who can score (10.8 ppg) and rebound (7.8 rpg), while Lewis can play multiple positions, and still find points (10.8 ppg). USC will welcome Demar DeRozan who might be the most athletic freshman in the nation, if not the most talented.

Top Five Conferences (in order): Big East, ACC, Pac-10, SEC, Big 12

National Championship: North Carolina over Connecticut

Five Freshmen to Watch: Brandon Jennings (Arizona), Samardo Samuels (Louisville), Scotty Hopson (Tennessee), Tyreke Evans (Memphis), B.J. Mullens (Ohio State)

First Team All-America:
G – Darren Collison (UCLA)
G – Stephen Curry (Davidson)
F – Tyler Smith (Tennessee)
F – Luke Harangody (Notre Dame)
C – Tyler Hansbrough (North Carolina) Player of the Year (left)

Second Team All-America:
G – Ty Lawson (North Carolina)
G – James Harden (Arizona St.)
F – Chase Budinger (Arizona)
F – Blake Griffin (Oklahoma)
C – Hasheem Thabeet (Connecticut)

Third Team All-America:
G – Patrick Mills (St. Mary's)
G – Tyrese Rice (Boston College)
F – Jon Brockman (Washington)
F – Damion James (Texas)
C – DeJuan Blair (Pittsburgh)

Fourth Team All-America:
G – Jeremy Pargo (Gonzaga) (left)
G – Tyreke Evans (Memphis)
F – Samardo Samuels (Louisville)
F – Raymar Morgan (Michigan St.)
C – A.J. Ogilvy (Vanderbilt)

Honorable Mention: Patrick Patterson (Kentucky), Sam Young (Pittsburgh), Dominic James (Marquette), Wayne Ellington (North Carolina), Gerald Henderson (Duke), Jonny Flynn (Syracuse), A.J. Abrams (Texas)

Five teams that are sleepers:
1) Washington. The Huskies aren’t predicted to do well in the Pac-10, but Washington has loads of talent and could turn quite a few heads. Jon Brockman is the go-to player, Quincy Pondexter is going to have a breakout season, Isaiah Thomas can flat-out score, and Lorenzo Romar is one of the nation’s top coaches.

2) Kansas. How can the defending national champions be considered a sleeper? How about losing almost every major player off last year’s team. But, the Jayhawks bring in a solid recruiting class (five four-star athletes) to add to the two from the year before, and the Jayhawks will be young but talented. Watch for freshman Travis Releford to step up into a major scoring role.

3) Southern Illinois. Anthony Booker, Bryan Mullins and Josh Bone will step up, and Kevin Dillard is a very good recruit. Take this into account with the Missouri Valley Conference, and look for Southern Illinois make a splash during March.

4) San Diego. This team surprised everyone by topping Gonzaga and St. Mary’s last season for the WCC crown. This season more will be expected, but the Toreros will take a back seat to those two teams until they prove they can consistently compete with them. With their top four scorers returning, including Brandon Johnson (right) (16.9 ppg, 3.5 apg) and Gyno Pomare (14.1 ppg, 7.4 rpg), San Diego has inside-outside balance.

5) West Virginia. Can the Mountaineers win without Joe Alexander? That will be the defining question this season. But they bring in Devin Ebanks who can, along with fellow freshman Kevin Jones, take over a game. They play in the toughest conference in the nation, so they will have to grow up quickly, but they have the talent to compete.

Predicted finishes by coneference:
ACC: North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Miami, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Maryland, Georgia Tech, N.C. St., Boston College, Florida St., Virginia

Big 12: Texas, Oklahoma, Baylor, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Oklahoma St., Kansas St., Texas Tech, Nebraska, Colorado, Iowa St.

Big East: Connecticut, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova, West Virginia, Syracuse, Providence, Cincinnati, Rutgers, Seaton Hall, S. Florida, DePaul, St. John’s

Big Ten: Michigan St., Purdue, Ohio St., Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan, Penn. St., Northwestern, Iowa, Indiana

Pac-10: UCLA, Arizona St., Washington, USC, Arizona, Washington St., Oregon, California, Stanford, Oregon St.

SEC: (EAST) Tennessee, Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Georgia; (WEST) LSU, Alabama, Ole Miss., Auburn, Arkansas, Miss. St.

Kobe's good, but he's no Jordan

Can we please stop with the Kobe Bryan/Michael Jordan comparisons? If MJ were the Disneyland then Kobe would be the Six Flags. Good, but not Disneyland good.

On paper, there’s no comparison, so why make the argument? Looking back on Jordan’s career, he averaged 30.1 points per game during the regular season, and raised that total to 33.4 during the playoffs. Kobe, by comparison, has averaged 25 during the regular season, but his numbers have actually lowered to 24.3 in the playoffs.

MJ averaged more rebounds per game, more assists per game, more steals per game and shot a better free throw percentage than Kobe did in both the regular season and playoffs.

So, statistically speaking, while MJ is on Mars, Kobe is still hovering around the moon. Both out of this world, but Kobe still has quite a bit of ground to make up on Jordan.

Jordan has five NBA regular season MVPs to his name; Kobe has one. Jordan led the NBA in scoring 10 times; Kobe has only twice. Jordan was a 10-time NBA First Team player; Kobe is a six-time First Team member.

And it’s not only offense.

Jordan has an NBA Defensive Player of the Year award on his shelf; Kobe does not.

Then there are titles.

Jordan was the key player during each of his six championships, winning the Finals MVP in all six. Kobe has three championships to his name, but no Finals MVPs due in large part to not even being the most dominant player on his team during those championship seasons. No, the most dominant center of our generation—Shaquille O’Neal—always left Kobe standing cold in Shaw’s large shadow.

In fact, it was Kobe’s ego that drove Shaq out of town, along with the title hopes of the Lakers until this season when they acquired All-Star center Pau Gasol for 25 cents on the dollar.

Jordan also put the team first. He was known for yelling at teammates when they messed up, but never to the point that Kobe has. Not only has Kobe thrown teammates under the bus, he got behind the wheel to ran them over a few more times to add insult to injury.

Every way you slice it—and many people are getting creative in the way they slice it—Jordan is and was the better player. When Kobe’s Lakers let a 24-point lead slip away at home in the Finals last night, some people were talking about how Jordan would never have let that happen. And they’re right.

While Kobe is a great player, he’s no Jordan so let’s stop pretending he is. They are both in the Top 20 players of all time, and that’s where the comparisons end.

Wow, I'm bad at keeping up with this...

But I'll try to be better. A few big things have happened in sports since I last wrote, and a few big things are currently happening too. Let's recap a few things first:

-Detroit Red Wings win Stanley Cup. The Wings, who were never really threatened during the playoffs, never facing an elimination game. In fact, they beat Nashville 4-2, Colorado 4-0, Dallas 4-2, and Pittsburgh 4-2. That's a combined 16-6 record in the playoffs, folks. Not too shabby. The Wings rightfully rewarded head coach Mike Babcock (who is the former coach of the Spokane Chiefs) with a three-year deal. Babcock is 231-118-19 in just five years in the NHL, leading two different teams to the Stanley Cup Finals (Mighty Ducks in '03, Red Wings in '08). Pretty solid start to his coaching career.

-NBA Playoffs are winding down. The Lakers and Celtics are currently battling it out for supremacy, with the Celtics holding a 2-1 lead heading into Game Four. I watched Game 3 and was not too impressed by Kevin Garnett. The reality is, he needs this series more than anyone else on the court to prove he is legitimately one of the 25 best players ever.

Say what you want about the NBA and their image problems off the court (case and point: Seattle Supersonics situation), but their biggest problem may be with referees on the court. Ref Tim Donaghy was arrested on charges that he fixed games for gambling purposes, and now Donaghy is coming out to say that some games in the past have been fixed -- including the fishy 2002 Game Six between the Sacrament Kings and Los Angeles Lakers, called by many the worst officiated game ever. Commissioner David Stern is covering it up to be something that Donaghy would say to get his sentenced reduced. At this point, I really thing Stern needs to step down. He's losing control of the game; his image is being tarnished more and more every day. For the Sonics moving to Oklahoma thanks to a buddy-buddy agreement with Clay Bennett, to the conspiracy theories about the NBA's officiating, to the controversy of expansion overseas (which, by the way, his comparison of Miami to Paris being shorter than Miami to Portland is, is flat out wrong...Miami to Portland is 2700 miles; Miami to Paris is 4500 miles...so about twice as far), to the fishy trades allowed by the league earlier in the season made by the (gasp!) Lakers and Celtics -- both of whom greatly improved thanks to one-sided trades and are now in the finals. By the way, the potentially highly-rated Lakers-Celtics finals is shady for a few things: the one-sided trades, the officiating in the Lakers-Spurs series, and many more things.

But I digress. The reason I bring this up is because I'm pseudo-boycotting the finals. Yes, I broke down and watched Game Three, but only because my roommates and I went out to eat and it was on.

-Whitworth won the NWC All-Sports award for the second time in four years. So congrats are in order for that. The Bucs won championships in Football, Men's Soccer, Men's Basketball, Men's Swimming, Women's Swimming and Men's Track and Field, while finishing second in Women's Soccer, Women's Tennis, Men's Golf and Women's Golf. Out of 18 sports, the Pirates won championships in six, while finishing second in four more.

-The French Open is over, and Rafael Nadal easily won. In fact, he did not lose a set in the tournament, and beat the No. 1 player in the world (and perhaps best player ever) Roger Federer 6-1, 6-3, 6-0 in the finals. Great showing for Rafa, who has now proven to me he's the best clay court player ever.

-The Seattle Mariners are in last place...again. Once again showing how inept their front office is with picking up key players. The M's have wasted Ichiro's prime, surrounding him with has-beens. It's a shame. They really need help everywhere, and it's pretty hard to deny that. ESPN even named them the "Biggest Disappointment" in 2008. So congrats to the M's for that.

-Big Brown failed to make history. So what happened? Norman Chad has insight.

NHL Playoffs Preview

Western Conference

(1) Detroit Red Wings vs. (8) Nashville Predators
Prediction: Red Wings in 5

(4) Anaheim Mighty Ducks vs. (5) Dallas Stars
Prediction: Stars in 6

(3) Minnesota Wild vs. (6) Colorado Avalanche
Prediction: Wild in 6

(2) San Jose Sharks vs. (7) Calgary Flames
Prediction: Sharks in 5


Eastern Conference

(1) Montreal Canadians vs. (8) Boston Bruins
Prediction: Montreal in 6

(4) New Jersey Devils vs. (5) New York Rangers
Prediction: New York in 7

(3) Washington Capitals vs. (6) Philadelphia Flyers
Prediction: Washington in 6

(2) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (7) Ottawa Senators
Prediction: Pittsburgh in 5

I'm back

Sorry for the delay on posts, the past few weeks have been pretty crazy. Nonetheless, a few big sports things have occurred in the past few weeks:

*The Whitworth Pirates men's basketball team swept PLU and UPS on the road for the first time since the Loggers joined the NWC. It was such a huge sweep that head coach Jim Hayford broke down on the air during a post-game interview following Whitworth's win at UPS. As a long-time Pirate fan listening to the game on the radio, I was...well, speechless. To think that the Pirates, the defending NWC champs who lost four starters (including NWC MVP Bryan Williams, sharpshooters Jon Young and James Jones, and the best rebounder on the team in Kevin Hasenfus) could travel to Tacoma, and beat PLU and more importantly UPS (who was ranked No. 7 in the nation before the game) was unreal. Ryan Symes (above, celebrating win at UPS) led all scorers with 24 points in the win. I thought Colin Willemsen's comments in the Spokesman the other day were interesting:

"In the past, I think maybe the seniors told themselves it was a tough place to win and they had to get at least one. So in a way -- with a bunch of new guys -- no one knew the history and just tried to go in and play well. ... The sweep in Tacoma was big, and it gave us a lot of momentum."

A lot of momentum indeed. The Bucs head into the second half of the NWC season in first place at 7-1 in the NWC, and all their tough road games are over. Now if they can hold serve against PLU, UPS and Linfield at home the NWC title should be theirs for the second year in a row. It's great to be a Whitworth Pirate.

*The Patriots and Giants will be meeting for the second time this season in the Super Bowl. The Pats won the first meeting 38-35 in Week 17 to cap off their perfect 16-0 regular season, but the Giants certainly played the Pats tough. I think the Pats will win, but I don't think it will be a blow out. Somewhere around 27-24, as I think both defenses will be better this time around.

*The Sonics ended their 14-game losing streak by beating the San Antonio Spurs 88-85 Tuesday. Good news all around. The Sonics were looking average for a while (which, for this season, I'll take), but that was right before this long losing skid. But I'm glad it's over and it's time to look forward.

*Mike Holmgren is coming back for one last hurrah. And I couldn't be more thrilled. I think next season is the last hurrah for a lot of Seahawks: Holmgren, Shaun Alexander, most of the offensive line, and maybe Matt Hasselbeck. I'm one more disappointing playoff loss away from saying, "screw it, let's blow this team up and start over." Especially on offense. What a terrible effort in Green Bay. The key positions to fill out in the offseason are, in order: Tight End, Offensive Line, Defensive Line, Running Back.

*Johan Santana is a Met. That obviously makes the Mets the team to beat in the NL on paper, but we all know how the Mets do in reality. However their Santana-Pedro Martinez one-two punch if they can stay healthy is a scary one--especially facing them each two or three times in a seven game series. Wow how the NL has changed.

*Not to be outdone, the Seattle Mariners finally make a trade. Kind of. The Baltimore Orioles-Mariners trade has not yet been approved by the Orioles' owner Peter Angelos. The trade involved the O's sending 28-year-old pitcher Erik Bedard (2007: 13-5, 3.16) to the M's for potential star prospect Adam Jones (2007: .246, 2 HR, 4 RBI) who would probably be the M's http://www.blogger.com/img/gl.link.gifstarter in right field next season, reliever George Sherrill (2007: 2-0, 2.36, 3) and an undetermined number of Seattle minor-leaguers, according the the Seattle Times.

As far as I can tell, this trade would work both ways. The O's get potential help in the bullpen, as well as a few prospects who could pan out. The Mariners get a solid starter who would probably become their No. 2 starter, meaning they'd throw out a rotation of: Hernandez-Bedard-Washburn-Batista-Silva. This would put the Mariners in a position to push the Angels for the AL West crown. The M's were a pitcher short from claiming the crown last year, as the rotation (aka Weaver) broke down in September. This could put them over the edge. Who would replace Jones in RF? Probably Willie Bloomquist or Mike Morse. Though it'd be nice to pick up a free agent to fill that spot. Would it have been nice to sign Jose Guillen? Sure, but that's history now. Shawn Green and Bobby Kielty are still free agents, so are Kenny Lofton, Shannon Stewart, Reggie Sanders and Corey Patterson. My vote is for Patterson, but at this point Lofton will do too. But, knowing the M's, they'll probably settle for Morse. The life of a Seattle fan -- always expecting the worst-case scenario.

Well, that's all I got for now. I'll continue the countdown to signing day which is a week from today (Wednesday). Be on the lookout for the next recruiting classes.

NFL Playoff Scores

Conference Championships (Jan. 20)
AFC
San Diego vs. NEW ENGLAND (12:30 p.m., CBS)

NFC
N.Y. Giants vs. GREEN BAY (3:30 p.m., FOX)

Divisional Playoffs (Jan. 12-13)
AFC
NEW ENGLAND 31, Jacksonville 20
San Diego 28, INDIANAPOLIS 24

NFC
GREEN BAY 42, Seattle 20
N.Y. Giants 21, DALLAS 17

Wild Card Playoffs (Jan. 5-6)
AFC
Jacksonville 31, PITTSBURGH 29
SAN DIEGO 17, Tennessee 6

NFC
SEATTLE 35, Washington 14
N.Y. Giants 24, TAMPA BAY 14

NFL Divisional Playoff Weekend Predictions

Saturday:
GREEN BAY 24, Seattle 21
"We want the ball, and we're going to score." Was it only three years ago that Matt Hasselbeck uttered those words in Green Bay before throwing an interception that was returned for a touchdown that advanced the Packers? Well, the times have changed and the Seahawks are now the more playoff experienced team. But I don't think that's enough as the Seahawks are awful on the road. Still, experience will keep the Seahawks close and--with a lucky break--they could pull this one out.

NEW ENGLAND 38, Jacksonville 28
The Patriots know what the stakes are: An undefeated season and a right to the claim of the "best team ever." Jacksonville is everyones favorite sleeper pick this year. But can the Jaguars avoid the mistakes that almost cost them their first round game last weekend? The Pats had a week to rest and rest injuries, and I just can't see the Jags beating the Pats in New England.

Sunday:
INDIANAPOLIS 35, San Diego 17
When they met earlier in the season, in San Diego, everything that could go wrong for the Colts did: Peyton Manning threw six picks and Adam Vinatieri missed field goals inside 40 yards. And the Colts still had a chance to win that game on the road. Things couldn't possibly get worse for the Colts than that, and this time they're at home. The Chargers have an unproven quarterback and their star tight end is out. If the Colts focus on stopping LaDanian Tomlinson and forcing Philip Rivers to beat them, I like the Colts' odds.

DALLAS 28, N.Y. Giants 25
Dallas limped to the playoffs, but a week off to rejuvenate and regroup will help the Cowboys. The Giants on the other hand came into the playoffs after almost knocking the Patriots off in the last week of the season. They beat the Bucs in Tampa Bay, but I'm not fully convinced that Eli Manning is a better quarterback than Tony Romo in the playoffs. I like the Cowboys to squeak one out.

Countdown to Singing Day: Class #9 USC

National signing day is upon us, so I thought I’d break down my view of the Top 10 classes coming in, starting with No. 10 and counting down to No. 1 which I will publish on national signing day (February 6).













No. 9 – USC Trojans
Verbal Commitments (5 *****, 5 ****, 4 ***):
***** (OT) Tyron Smith; (TE) Blake Ayles; (OT) Matt Kalil; (WR) D.J. Shoemate; (OT) Matt Meyer
**** (LB) Maurice Simmons; (WR) Brice Butler; (DT) Armond Armstead; (WR) Joe Adams; (RB) Curtis McNeal
*** (OG) Khaled Holmes; (OG) Daniel Campbell; (S) Drew McAllister; (DE) Wes Horton

Still recruiting (2http://www.blogger.com/img/gl.link.gif *****, ****, ***):
***** (DT) Omar Hunter (Medium Interest); (CB) T.J. Bryant (Medium Interest)
**** (LB) Jerrell Harris (Medium Interest); (LB) Marcus Robinson (Low Interest); (DE) Nicholas Perry (Medium Interest); (S) Vaughn Telemaque (High Interest); (OT) Antoine McClain (Low Interest); (LB) Uona Kaveinga (Medium Interest); (DT) Roderick Davis (Low Interest); (WR) Attrail Snipes (High Interest); (DE) Devin Johnson (Medium Interest)
*** (DT) Jurrell Casey (High Interest); (DT) Jacob Feagai (Medium Interest); (OG) Vaughn Dotsy (Medium Interest); (CB) Jamar Taylor (Medium Interest); (WR) Darius Morgan (Medium Interest)

Areas of big need: Tight End, Right Tackle, Left Tackle, Defensive End
Areas of moderate need: Outside Linebacker, Cornerback, Defensive Tackle

Pete Carroll knows how to recruit for the positions he is weak in or has players graduating. USC fills their immediate needs with Ayles, Smith, Kalil and Meyer who are four five-star studs who can fill their needs immediately. If Middle Linebacker Rey Maualuga leaves for the NFL early that opens a new hole the Trojans needs to fill. They have Simmons coming in, and are recruiting three more four-star Linebackers. If they can get two of the three they will be just fine.

Their skill positions are fine for now, but they need to be looking in the future as well. Shoemate is a good recruit—probably someone who won’t play much early in his career, but will be the star in a few years. The only “need” position yet to be filled with a star is defensive end where they only have one three-star commit. But they have their eye on a four-star end as well.

Countdown to Singing Day: Class #10 Michigan

National signing day is upon us, so I thought I’d break down my view of the Top 10 classes coming in, starting with No. 10 and counting down to No. 1 which I will publish on national signing day (February 6).









No. 10 – Michigan Wolverines
Verbal Commitments (2 *****, 11 ****, 3 ***):
***** (CB) Boubacar Cissoko; (RB) Sam McGuffie
**** (S) Brandon Smith; (TE) Kevin Koger; (LB) J.B. Fitzgerald; (WR) Daryl Stonum; (DT) Mike Martin; (LB) Marcus Witherspoon; (OG) Kurt Wermers; (OT) Dan O'Neill; (TE) Christian Wilson; (RB) Mike Cox; (OT) Elliott Mealer
*** (LB) Kenny Demens; (TE) Brandon Moore; (OT) Rocko Khoury
** (C) George Morales

Still recruiting (1 *****, 4 ****, 6 ***):
***** (QB) Terrelle Pryor (Medium Interest)
**** (DE) Nicholas Perry (Medium Interest); (S) Vaughn Telemaque (Low Interest); (CB) Jarred Holley (Medium Interest); (S) Herman Davidson (Medium Interest)
*** (S) Keanon Cooper (Medium Interest); (S) J.T. Floyd (Medium Interest); (DT) Jurrell Casey (Medium Interest); (WR) Adrian Bushell (Low Interest); (RB) Glenn Winston (Medium Interest); (WR) Vaughn Carraway (High Interest)

Areas of big need: Quarterback, Left Tackle, Outside Linebacker, Inside Linebacker, Strong Safety, Free Safety
Areas of moderate need: Running Back, Wide Receiver

If the Wolverines can lock up Pryor and Perry, as well as either Holley or Davidson, and this class will be easily one of the Top 10 in the nation. The Wolverines need a quarterback—and bad—as they lost starter Chad Henne to graduation, back-up and No. 2 recruit last year Ryan Mallett and fourth-string QB David Cone to transfer. Michigan did get a four-star transfer in Steven Threet, but the addition Pryor will really make Michigan fans forget all of the transfers if he makes the decision to come to Ann Arbor.

Michigan’s secondary is young, but talented with returning starter sophomore Donovan Warren and freshmen Boubacar Cissoko and Brandon Smith. If Michgan lands Davidson or Holley it will only add to the depth—a secondary that will be one of the best in the nation in two years. They offensive line will also add depth with four-star linemen Kurt Wermers, Dan O'Neill, and Elliott Mealer.

Hawaii's non-conference schedule was WAC

I’m sorry, Western Athletic Conference fans, but you just don’t deserve a bid into the BCS National Championship game. After Hawaii’s dismal showing against the Georgia Bulldogs, it’s just hard to take the WAC seriously.

After completing a perfect 12-0 regular season, the truly untested Hawaii Warriors marched into the Sugar Bowl and promptly got a rude awakening to what playing in a major conference might look like, as the Bulldogs stomped the Warriors 41-10. With their reserves playing for most of the fourth quarter. Ouch.

But what about Boise State’s 43-42 overtime win over Oklahoma last year?

Well, that’s the exception, not the rule. Every once in a while an Appalachian State beats a Michigan, or a Boise State beats an Oklahoma. But it doesn’t happen on a regular basis that proves the smaller conferences belong with the big ones.

Truth be told, if this previously undefeated Hawaii team represents the best of the WAC—and they claim they do—then a WAC team might never get a chance to play in a BCS game, especially with the parody in major college football. Just look at the national champion: a two-loss team from the SEC.

The only way they can win respect of the voters back it to play a decent non-conference schedule. This year, Hawaii’s consisted of: Northern Colorado, UNLV, Charleston Southern, and University of Washington. Not exactly a hard-hitting non-conference schedule. The only decent game was the Washington one, and the Huskies almost knocked off the Warriors, but Hawaii was bailed out with a terrible call and a Jake Locker interception in the last two minutes.

So until the WAC starts scheduling better non-conference teams, proving their undefeated records mean something, let’s let them enjoy the Independence Bowl.

NFL Playoff Conversation

Just minutes away from the start of the road to the Super Bowl, fellow blogger and sports nut Peter Smelser of For Pete's Sake and I answered some of the burning questions heading into the playoffs. Here's what transpired:

Peter: Can the Redskins continue this run? Will Seattle's monumental homefield advantage be enough to help stop this momentum?

Colin: I think this is the end of the road for the 'Skins. A shaky QB (Collins) on the road in the loudest stadium in football is not a good combination if you're from the District of Columbia. The Seahawks have finally reintroduced a running game (now that Shaun Alexander is healthy) and I like the way the passing game is going. Plus the Seahawks defense is much improved over last year's depleted group that was led by an insurance salesman in the secondary.

The two big things for Washington are momentum and their strength of schedule. Seattle is only 1-1 against playoff teams this season, while the Skins have defeated multiple playoff teams recently. I still like the 'Hawks though. ESPN’s Bill Simmons had some funny things to say about Todd Collins about half way down this column. Thoughts?

Peter: It’s true the Seahawks won the NFC Worst...again. But as much as I love to hate Seattle, I think experts are sleeping on this team. Seattle’s got great defense and teams just don’t win on the road there. Also in Matt Hasselbeck you have a tested veteran quarterback. In short Washington’s run will end, today.

In that link, Simmons brings up a great point about Todd Collins. He’s a 36-year-old backup, who until three weeks ago people didn’t even know he existed. The QB position isn’t everything in football, but it means a lot to have a great one. It really helps during the playoffs. Washington had a great run, good story, but its over.

Colin: Yeah, I agree that the Seahawks defense is quietly becoming one of the best in football...they don't get a ton of recognition but they're solid

Peter: Not just solid, but they are fast. Lofa Tatupu, Julian Peterson and Patrick Kerney are all studs.

Colin: In fact I think they have the best trio of linebackers in the NFL in Tatupu, Peterson and Hill.

Peter: It's a good unit, good enough to carry them a couple rounds. Wow, I can't believe I just said that

Colin: Yeah, can I keep that quote?

-----

Colin: Next question, if the Patriots lose, should they still be considered an undefeated team with the Dolphins?

Peter: That's a good question. Here's the deal, the 1972 Dolphins went 17-0 with a Super Bowl victory. So New England must remain undefeated and bring home another championship to still be considered an “undefeated” team.

No question about it, 16-0 is amazing, but to be in consideration with Shula's Dolphins, the Pats run must continue. Your thoughts?

Colin: Well, I think they should be considered in the same arena as the Dolphins if they lose in the playoffs to some degree. They have joined the 'Phins as the only two teams to go undefeated during the regular season...but, as the '96 bulls said "it don't mean a thing without the ring"

So the Pats deserve to be in the conversation, but without a super bowl they still aren't there. The other thing to keep in mind is that this is a tougher, deeper, faster league and the patriots played a MUCH tougher schedule and more games. I think the '34 and '42 Bears, who both completed perfect regular seasons also deserve to be in the conversation...but they didn't win the Super Bowl.

Me: The Super Bowl seems to be the defining factor then.

Colin: Yeah. A short answer would be they are in the conversation, but not THE conversation. I guess we agree more or less...16-0 is quite the accomplishment--something only done three times before--but a Super Bowl would seal the deal.

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Colin: Next question, can Dallas recover from their end of the season collapse?

Peter: I’ll admit things don’t look great for Dallas. Tony Romo has had terrible December numbers (the past two seasons), then you’ve got the Romo-Simpson saga and TO’s ankle sprain, oh plus Wade Phillips. But, Dallas has homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, a stud tight-end target in Jason Witten and arguably the best back-up running back in the NFL. So what’s that mean for their chances?

Dallas is going to recover. There’s too much talent on that team not to win at least one playoff game. They get a week off to get healthy. Honestly, I think they’ll win two and play for the Super Bowl. Clearly the AFC is the class of the NFL right now, so rings shouldn’t be expected in Big-D.

Colin: I think this is it for the Cowboys. Tony Romo is playing horribly, T.O. is about to erupt and chew out Phillips and Romo (if his ankle allows him to) and they seemed to have peaked too early. But here's the catch: they have the talent to get to the Super Bowl, but can they use that talent and recover from a dreadful end of the season? I say no, but if they do it won't totally surprise me. They might beat whoever wins the Bucs/Giants, but they're not winning the Super Bowl or getting there

Peter: Well then who is? Wait, wait we can get to that in minute. Keep in mind Green Bay and Brett Farve are something like 0-8 in Dallas. I certainly haven't jumped on that bandwagon.

Colin: That is true, but I think this is the year for Favre...but as long as Hasselbeck doesn't guarantee anything ("We’re going to get the ball and score!") in Lambeau next weekend, the Seahawks could march into Dallas and win.

-----

Peter: Jacksonville just marched in Pittsburgh and won. Now, they enter their Wildcard rematch not only with a better record, but also as the favorite to win. Is Vegas off its rocker? Who’s going win?

Colin: I'm taking Jacksonville. On paper, I like Jacksonville in this one, but Heinz Field is the great equalizer (see: Pit 3, Miami 0). Jacksonville beat Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh last month, 29-22, and thee game wining streak against Pittsburgh.

Can Pittsburgh stop Taylor? Garrard doesn't kill you with picks, but doesn't bring a ton to the table either. Pittsburgh has a great defense (first in the NFL) but bad secondary (last in interceptons), plus Willie Parker is out for the game. The one question mark for Jacksonville…playoff experience. Pittsburgh has a ton of experience and Jacksonville doesn't have any. But I still like Jacksonville in a close game. So, no Vegas isn’t nuts.

Peter: I’m going to have to disagree with you on this one. Jacksonville did beat Pittsburgh in the snow in December, but December isn’t January. Sure Willie Parker is out, but what does he give Pittsburgh? About 100 yards a game, plus some big play potential. Well, Najeh Davenport doesn’t have big play ability, but the yards will be there. Roethlisberger is becoming an elite QB and Steelers safety Troy Polamalu will play a huge boost to the secondary.

The biggest intangible in this game is field. You brought up the 3-0 typhoon-like game against Miami. The grass hasn’t held up well, advantage Pittsburgh. The Steelers like the field, a lot opposing teams don’t. The terrible towels will be out in force. I’m taking Pittsburgh in a close one.

-----

Prediction Time:

Peter:
Wildcard Round:
AFC: San Diego over Tennessee, Pittsburgh over Jacksonville
NFC: Seattle over Washington, Tampa Bay over New York Giants
Divisional Round:
AFC: New England over Pittsburgh, San Diego over Indianapolis
NFC: Dallas over Tampa Bay, Seattle over Green Bay
Conference Championship:
AFC: San Diego over New England
NFC: Dallas over Seattle
Super Bowl:
San Diego over Dallas

Colin:
Wildcard Round:
AFC: San Diego over Tennessee, Jacksonville over Pittsburgh
NFC: Seattle over Washington, New York Giants over Tampa Bay
Divisional Round:
AFC: New England over Jacksonville, Indianapolis over San Diego
NFC: Dallas over New York Giants, Seattle over Green Bay
Conference Championship:
AFC: New England over Indianapolis
NFC: Seattle over Dallas
Super Bowl Champion:
New England over Seattle

Note: Be sure to check out For Pete's Sake for up-to-date commentary on all things sports.

NFL Wild Card Weekend Predictions

Saturday:
SEATTLE 28, Washington 17
What do you get when you take the loudest NFL crowd, with a team that is 23-3 at home over the last four years and an opposing quarterback who is shaky? A Seahawks victory. While Washington is riding momentum of winning their last four games to get into the playoffs, and have dedicated the season to fallen teammate Shaun Taylor, I just can't get past the fact that they are on the road with an unproven quarterback. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are starting to find a run game that was absent for most of the season, and their fans are the best in the country.

Jacksonville 24, PITTSBURGH 17
On paper I like the Jaguars because they are one of the hottest teams in football while the Steelers have hit a rough patch. The Steelers defense should keep them in the game, but the Jags beat Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh a few weeks ago (29-22). However, Heinz Field is great equalizer (see: Pittsburgh 3, Miami 0), but I still like the Jags by a touchdown.

Sunday:
Giants 34, BUCCANEERS 31
Tampa Bay took the last two weeks off to basically prepare for this game, but lost any momentum they had. The Giants on the other hand lost a close 38-35 game to the undefeated Patriots in the last game of the year, showing they can play with the best. Eli Manning has a history of not showing up for the playoffs, but I think this is the season he breaks through that reputation.

CHARGERS 31, Titans 6
This is probably the least exciting game, as Tennessee's offensive was offensive all season and is now without their starting quarterback. The Chargers started the season off on a terrible note, but have recovered and look to make a run in the playoffs. San Diego is better in every category except one: Coaching. Jeff Fisher is a much better coach than Norv Turner, but I don't think that will be eough. LaDanian Tomlinson will be tough to stop, so I don't see any problems for the Chargers.

Manningham and Michigan links

First of all, I want to pass along this link to Coach Lloyd Carr's speech in the locker room after a 41-35 win over Florida on Tuesday.

Secondly, I want to answer a question posted by my buddy Peter who asked if Michigan wide receiver Mario Manningham is ready to make an impact at the professional level. In my opinion, yes, he is. Though he had a dismal game against Ohio State catching only five passes for 34 yards while dropping at least as many as he caught. But that was the one blemish on his resume.

In all, he caught 72 passes for 1,174 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2007 despite only 12 games. In fact, he ahttp://www.blogger.com/img/gl.link.gifveraged over 16 yards per catch, and almost 100 yards per game.

But remember he is only a junior, and still has the option of returning for a senior season. As you can imagine, I'm glued to the two leading Michigan football blogs: MGoBlog and Michigan Sports Center. According to a story by Michigan Sports Center, Manningham is reportedly going to stay for his senior year. Generally, it had been accepted that he was going to go pro, but it seems by this story that he is leaning toward staying.

My opinion is that he will stay if Mallett transfers (which, according to the same story, he will) because they reportedly don't have the best relationship. Also, if Michigan gets consensus No. 1 recruit Terrelle Pryor (Vince Young-like quarterback), he'll be posting some big numbers in the spread offense next year. Pryor is expected to announce his future plans this Saturday at the U.S. Army All-American Bowl, the high school football all-star game, but has said that's false and is expected to visit Michigan in late January.

Pryor has narrowed his choices to Michigan, Duke, Florida, Ohio State, Oregon and Penn St. Pryor reportedly wants to play basketball too. His cousin plays for the Michigan football team, so that along with the hiring of noted spread head coach Rich Rodriguez has made him put Michigan near the top of his list. Also, he and five-star running back who has committed to Michigan Sam McGuffie are now Facebook friends according to MGoBlog.

Here's what Pryor said about Michigan: "(Rich Rodriguez's) excited and so was I. Michigan was on my early list, and now their right up there again. He's a great coach and I like his offense."

Hopefully he picks Michigan.

Long answer short, if Manningham decides to leave, he'll make a great prospect for a mid-to-late first round choice. He does have a tendency to drop easy passes, but makes tough catches look easy. That and he's very, very fast.

Just a few more recruiting notes: Michigan has been assured by top recruits running back Sam McGuffie (who you can see on YouTube many, many times) and cornerback Boubacar Cissoko that they will keep their commitments to Michigan. If Pryor signs, that would bring in three five-star recruits in a combination of Carr's last recruiting class and Rodriguez's first recruiting class. That to go along 10 four-star recruits and three three-star recruits. Michigan is still waiting to hear from an additional five-star recruit, and seven four-star recruits.

You can watch many recruits this weekend, including six players who have committed to Michigan and another four who are currently being recruited.

The U.S. Army All-American Bowl:
West
Sam McGuffie (RB) Committed (5 Star, #6 RB, #50 Overall)
Nick Perry (DE) Recruit (4 Star, #7 DE, #61 Overall)

East
Boubacar Cissoko (CB) Committed (5 Star, #3 CB, #28 Overall)
Terrelle Pryor (QB) Recruit (5 Star, #1 QB, #2 Overall)
Shayne Hale (DE) Recruit (5 Star, #3 DE, #37 Overall)
Brandon Smith (DB) Recruit (committed at All-Star game) (4 Star, #5 S, #70 Overall)

Under Armour All-American Game:
Team Red
Darryl Stonum (WR) Committed (4 Star, #9 WR, #52 Overall)
Dann O'Neill (OG) Committed (4 Star, #15 OT)
Christian Wilson (OLB/FB) Committed (4 Star, #19 TE)
Brandon Moore (TE) Committed (3 Star, #45 TE)

In more local recruiting news, Washington is bringing in one of their best--if not the best--recruiting class ever. Right now, I think keeping Tyrone Willingham has been one of their best decisions. Behind Jake Locker who just finished his freshman year, the Huskies look poised to challenge USC in the coming years.

Before we get Rich, let's take the Carr for one more spin

It's almost ironic that the one player who carried Michigan throughout the season, almost cost them their bowl game.

But at the end of the day, it was senior Chad Henne's career-high 373 yards passing that offset the two Mike Hart fumbles inside the one-yard line to lead the unranked Michigan Wolverines (9-4) to a 41-35 victory over the No. 9 Florida Gators (9-4).

Henne came out on fire to start the game, completing his first six passes, and even though he threw two interceptions, he still connected on 25 of 39 passes for three touchdowns. His favorite target was Adrian Arrington who caught nine passes for 153 yards and two touchdowns.

"Adrian's been making so many plays this years. I couldn't ask for a better performance from him," Henne said.

Michigan got out to an early 7-0 lead after an impressive 93-yard opening drive, but lost a total of 15 yards on the next two possessions. Florida meanwhile missed a field goal on their opening drive, but scored touchdowns on their next two possessions to take a 14-7 lead.

But the Wolverines responded as Hart ran for the first of his two touchdowns on the day.

Florida struggled on their next few possessions, as did Michigan.

First Hart, a senior, fumbled the ball inside the one-yard line after a 72-yard drive, his first fumble in 1,005 touches. Then Henne threw an interception in the inside the one-yard line the next time Michigan had the ball.

The third time was a charm though, as Michigan took a 21-14 lead into halftime thanks in part to a long hook-up between Henne and Arrington that put Michigan inside the one-yard line.

The Wolverines opened up the second half with another Hart touchdown, extending their lead to 28-14. Florida responded with a 56-yard drive of their own resulting in a touchdown and 28-21 deficit.

After another Hart fumble inside the one-yard line, the third Michigan turnover with less than one-yard to the end zone and only Hart's second fumble since his freshman year (both in this game), the Gators drove 80 yards to punch in another touchdown and even the score at 28-28.

Michigan answered with a field goal, but Florida took a 35-31 lead half-way through the fourth quarter.

But behind Henne's leadership, the Wolverines took a 38-35 lead, then extended the lead to 41-35 after a field goal.

Heisman trophy winner Tim Tebow threw four-straight incomplete passes that gave Michigan the ball back to run out the clock, as Michigan's head coach Lloyd Carr got an ice bath in his final game at the helm and carried off the field (left).

"I'm proud of players to deal with things we've had happen," Carr said. "This team could have folded but never did. We stuck together and I give the seniors a lot of credit."

Hart carried the ball 32 times for 129 yards and two touchdowns in his final game. In addition to Hart and Carr, it was also the final game for Henne, All-America offensive lineman Jake Long, Arrington, safety Jamar Adams, and many other Michigan players.

But in the players' minds, the day was about Carr.

"It was an amazing feeling to send Coach Carr out in the right way," Henne said. "He deserves so much."