NFL Playoff Conversation

Just minutes away from the start of the road to the Super Bowl, fellow blogger and sports nut Peter Smelser of For Pete's Sake and I answered some of the burning questions heading into the playoffs. Here's what transpired:

Peter: Can the Redskins continue this run? Will Seattle's monumental homefield advantage be enough to help stop this momentum?

Colin: I think this is the end of the road for the 'Skins. A shaky QB (Collins) on the road in the loudest stadium in football is not a good combination if you're from the District of Columbia. The Seahawks have finally reintroduced a running game (now that Shaun Alexander is healthy) and I like the way the passing game is going. Plus the Seahawks defense is much improved over last year's depleted group that was led by an insurance salesman in the secondary.

The two big things for Washington are momentum and their strength of schedule. Seattle is only 1-1 against playoff teams this season, while the Skins have defeated multiple playoff teams recently. I still like the 'Hawks though. ESPN’s Bill Simmons had some funny things to say about Todd Collins about half way down this column. Thoughts?

Peter: It’s true the Seahawks won the NFC Worst...again. But as much as I love to hate Seattle, I think experts are sleeping on this team. Seattle’s got great defense and teams just don’t win on the road there. Also in Matt Hasselbeck you have a tested veteran quarterback. In short Washington’s run will end, today.

In that link, Simmons brings up a great point about Todd Collins. He’s a 36-year-old backup, who until three weeks ago people didn’t even know he existed. The QB position isn’t everything in football, but it means a lot to have a great one. It really helps during the playoffs. Washington had a great run, good story, but its over.

Colin: Yeah, I agree that the Seahawks defense is quietly becoming one of the best in football...they don't get a ton of recognition but they're solid

Peter: Not just solid, but they are fast. Lofa Tatupu, Julian Peterson and Patrick Kerney are all studs.

Colin: In fact I think they have the best trio of linebackers in the NFL in Tatupu, Peterson and Hill.

Peter: It's a good unit, good enough to carry them a couple rounds. Wow, I can't believe I just said that

Colin: Yeah, can I keep that quote?

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Colin: Next question, if the Patriots lose, should they still be considered an undefeated team with the Dolphins?

Peter: That's a good question. Here's the deal, the 1972 Dolphins went 17-0 with a Super Bowl victory. So New England must remain undefeated and bring home another championship to still be considered an “undefeated” team.

No question about it, 16-0 is amazing, but to be in consideration with Shula's Dolphins, the Pats run must continue. Your thoughts?

Colin: Well, I think they should be considered in the same arena as the Dolphins if they lose in the playoffs to some degree. They have joined the 'Phins as the only two teams to go undefeated during the regular season...but, as the '96 bulls said "it don't mean a thing without the ring"

So the Pats deserve to be in the conversation, but without a super bowl they still aren't there. The other thing to keep in mind is that this is a tougher, deeper, faster league and the patriots played a MUCH tougher schedule and more games. I think the '34 and '42 Bears, who both completed perfect regular seasons also deserve to be in the conversation...but they didn't win the Super Bowl.

Me: The Super Bowl seems to be the defining factor then.

Colin: Yeah. A short answer would be they are in the conversation, but not THE conversation. I guess we agree more or less...16-0 is quite the accomplishment--something only done three times before--but a Super Bowl would seal the deal.

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Colin: Next question, can Dallas recover from their end of the season collapse?

Peter: I’ll admit things don’t look great for Dallas. Tony Romo has had terrible December numbers (the past two seasons), then you’ve got the Romo-Simpson saga and TO’s ankle sprain, oh plus Wade Phillips. But, Dallas has homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, a stud tight-end target in Jason Witten and arguably the best back-up running back in the NFL. So what’s that mean for their chances?

Dallas is going to recover. There’s too much talent on that team not to win at least one playoff game. They get a week off to get healthy. Honestly, I think they’ll win two and play for the Super Bowl. Clearly the AFC is the class of the NFL right now, so rings shouldn’t be expected in Big-D.

Colin: I think this is it for the Cowboys. Tony Romo is playing horribly, T.O. is about to erupt and chew out Phillips and Romo (if his ankle allows him to) and they seemed to have peaked too early. But here's the catch: they have the talent to get to the Super Bowl, but can they use that talent and recover from a dreadful end of the season? I say no, but if they do it won't totally surprise me. They might beat whoever wins the Bucs/Giants, but they're not winning the Super Bowl or getting there

Peter: Well then who is? Wait, wait we can get to that in minute. Keep in mind Green Bay and Brett Farve are something like 0-8 in Dallas. I certainly haven't jumped on that bandwagon.

Colin: That is true, but I think this is the year for Favre...but as long as Hasselbeck doesn't guarantee anything ("We’re going to get the ball and score!") in Lambeau next weekend, the Seahawks could march into Dallas and win.

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Peter: Jacksonville just marched in Pittsburgh and won. Now, they enter their Wildcard rematch not only with a better record, but also as the favorite to win. Is Vegas off its rocker? Who’s going win?

Colin: I'm taking Jacksonville. On paper, I like Jacksonville in this one, but Heinz Field is the great equalizer (see: Pit 3, Miami 0). Jacksonville beat Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh last month, 29-22, and thee game wining streak against Pittsburgh.

Can Pittsburgh stop Taylor? Garrard doesn't kill you with picks, but doesn't bring a ton to the table either. Pittsburgh has a great defense (first in the NFL) but bad secondary (last in interceptons), plus Willie Parker is out for the game. The one question mark for Jacksonville…playoff experience. Pittsburgh has a ton of experience and Jacksonville doesn't have any. But I still like Jacksonville in a close game. So, no Vegas isn’t nuts.

Peter: I’m going to have to disagree with you on this one. Jacksonville did beat Pittsburgh in the snow in December, but December isn’t January. Sure Willie Parker is out, but what does he give Pittsburgh? About 100 yards a game, plus some big play potential. Well, Najeh Davenport doesn’t have big play ability, but the yards will be there. Roethlisberger is becoming an elite QB and Steelers safety Troy Polamalu will play a huge boost to the secondary.

The biggest intangible in this game is field. You brought up the 3-0 typhoon-like game against Miami. The grass hasn’t held up well, advantage Pittsburgh. The Steelers like the field, a lot opposing teams don’t. The terrible towels will be out in force. I’m taking Pittsburgh in a close one.

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Prediction Time:

Peter:
Wildcard Round:
AFC: San Diego over Tennessee, Pittsburgh over Jacksonville
NFC: Seattle over Washington, Tampa Bay over New York Giants
Divisional Round:
AFC: New England over Pittsburgh, San Diego over Indianapolis
NFC: Dallas over Tampa Bay, Seattle over Green Bay
Conference Championship:
AFC: San Diego over New England
NFC: Dallas over Seattle
Super Bowl:
San Diego over Dallas

Colin:
Wildcard Round:
AFC: San Diego over Tennessee, Jacksonville over Pittsburgh
NFC: Seattle over Washington, New York Giants over Tampa Bay
Divisional Round:
AFC: New England over Jacksonville, Indianapolis over San Diego
NFC: Dallas over New York Giants, Seattle over Green Bay
Conference Championship:
AFC: New England over Indianapolis
NFC: Seattle over Dallas
Super Bowl Champion:
New England over Seattle

Note: Be sure to check out For Pete's Sake for up-to-date commentary on all things sports.