Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Hawaii's non-conference schedule was WAC

I’m sorry, Western Athletic Conference fans, but you just don’t deserve a bid into the BCS National Championship game. After Hawaii’s dismal showing against the Georgia Bulldogs, it’s just hard to take the WAC seriously.

After completing a perfect 12-0 regular season, the truly untested Hawaii Warriors marched into the Sugar Bowl and promptly got a rude awakening to what playing in a major conference might look like, as the Bulldogs stomped the Warriors 41-10. With their reserves playing for most of the fourth quarter. Ouch.

But what about Boise State’s 43-42 overtime win over Oklahoma last year?

Well, that’s the exception, not the rule. Every once in a while an Appalachian State beats a Michigan, or a Boise State beats an Oklahoma. But it doesn’t happen on a regular basis that proves the smaller conferences belong with the big ones.

Truth be told, if this previously undefeated Hawaii team represents the best of the WAC—and they claim they do—then a WAC team might never get a chance to play in a BCS game, especially with the parody in major college football. Just look at the national champion: a two-loss team from the SEC.

The only way they can win respect of the voters back it to play a decent non-conference schedule. This year, Hawaii’s consisted of: Northern Colorado, UNLV, Charleston Southern, and University of Washington. Not exactly a hard-hitting non-conference schedule. The only decent game was the Washington one, and the Huskies almost knocked off the Warriors, but Hawaii was bailed out with a terrible call and a Jake Locker interception in the last two minutes.

So until the WAC starts scheduling better non-conference teams, proving their undefeated records mean something, let’s let them enjoy the Independence Bowl.

Sunday, January 6, 2008

NFL Playoff Conversation

Just minutes away from the start of the road to the Super Bowl, fellow blogger and sports nut Peter Smelser of For Pete's Sake and I answered some of the burning questions heading into the playoffs. Here's what transpired:

Peter: Can the Redskins continue this run? Will Seattle's monumental homefield advantage be enough to help stop this momentum?

Colin: I think this is the end of the road for the 'Skins. A shaky QB (Collins) on the road in the loudest stadium in football is not a good combination if you're from the District of Columbia. The Seahawks have finally reintroduced a running game (now that Shaun Alexander is healthy) and I like the way the passing game is going. Plus the Seahawks defense is much improved over last year's depleted group that was led by an insurance salesman in the secondary.

The two big things for Washington are momentum and their strength of schedule. Seattle is only 1-1 against playoff teams this season, while the Skins have defeated multiple playoff teams recently. I still like the 'Hawks though. ESPN’s Bill Simmons had some funny things to say about Todd Collins about half way down this column. Thoughts?

Peter: It’s true the Seahawks won the NFC Worst...again. But as much as I love to hate Seattle, I think experts are sleeping on this team. Seattle’s got great defense and teams just don’t win on the road there. Also in Matt Hasselbeck you have a tested veteran quarterback. In short Washington’s run will end, today.

In that link, Simmons brings up a great point about Todd Collins. He’s a 36-year-old backup, who until three weeks ago people didn’t even know he existed. The QB position isn’t everything in football, but it means a lot to have a great one. It really helps during the playoffs. Washington had a great run, good story, but its over.

Colin: Yeah, I agree that the Seahawks defense is quietly becoming one of the best in football...they don't get a ton of recognition but they're solid

Peter: Not just solid, but they are fast. Lofa Tatupu, Julian Peterson and Patrick Kerney are all studs.

Colin: In fact I think they have the best trio of linebackers in the NFL in Tatupu, Peterson and Hill.

Peter: It's a good unit, good enough to carry them a couple rounds. Wow, I can't believe I just said that

Colin: Yeah, can I keep that quote?

-----

Colin: Next question, if the Patriots lose, should they still be considered an undefeated team with the Dolphins?

Peter: That's a good question. Here's the deal, the 1972 Dolphins went 17-0 with a Super Bowl victory. So New England must remain undefeated and bring home another championship to still be considered an “undefeated” team.

No question about it, 16-0 is amazing, but to be in consideration with Shula's Dolphins, the Pats run must continue. Your thoughts?

Colin: Well, I think they should be considered in the same arena as the Dolphins if they lose in the playoffs to some degree. They have joined the 'Phins as the only two teams to go undefeated during the regular season...but, as the '96 bulls said "it don't mean a thing without the ring"

So the Pats deserve to be in the conversation, but without a super bowl they still aren't there. The other thing to keep in mind is that this is a tougher, deeper, faster league and the patriots played a MUCH tougher schedule and more games. I think the '34 and '42 Bears, who both completed perfect regular seasons also deserve to be in the conversation...but they didn't win the Super Bowl.

Me: The Super Bowl seems to be the defining factor then.

Colin: Yeah. A short answer would be they are in the conversation, but not THE conversation. I guess we agree more or less...16-0 is quite the accomplishment--something only done three times before--but a Super Bowl would seal the deal.

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Colin: Next question, can Dallas recover from their end of the season collapse?

Peter: I’ll admit things don’t look great for Dallas. Tony Romo has had terrible December numbers (the past two seasons), then you’ve got the Romo-Simpson saga and TO’s ankle sprain, oh plus Wade Phillips. But, Dallas has homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, a stud tight-end target in Jason Witten and arguably the best back-up running back in the NFL. So what’s that mean for their chances?

Dallas is going to recover. There’s too much talent on that team not to win at least one playoff game. They get a week off to get healthy. Honestly, I think they’ll win two and play for the Super Bowl. Clearly the AFC is the class of the NFL right now, so rings shouldn’t be expected in Big-D.

Colin: I think this is it for the Cowboys. Tony Romo is playing horribly, T.O. is about to erupt and chew out Phillips and Romo (if his ankle allows him to) and they seemed to have peaked too early. But here's the catch: they have the talent to get to the Super Bowl, but can they use that talent and recover from a dreadful end of the season? I say no, but if they do it won't totally surprise me. They might beat whoever wins the Bucs/Giants, but they're not winning the Super Bowl or getting there

Peter: Well then who is? Wait, wait we can get to that in minute. Keep in mind Green Bay and Brett Farve are something like 0-8 in Dallas. I certainly haven't jumped on that bandwagon.

Colin: That is true, but I think this is the year for Favre...but as long as Hasselbeck doesn't guarantee anything ("We’re going to get the ball and score!") in Lambeau next weekend, the Seahawks could march into Dallas and win.

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Peter: Jacksonville just marched in Pittsburgh and won. Now, they enter their Wildcard rematch not only with a better record, but also as the favorite to win. Is Vegas off its rocker? Who’s going win?

Colin: I'm taking Jacksonville. On paper, I like Jacksonville in this one, but Heinz Field is the great equalizer (see: Pit 3, Miami 0). Jacksonville beat Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh last month, 29-22, and thee game wining streak against Pittsburgh.

Can Pittsburgh stop Taylor? Garrard doesn't kill you with picks, but doesn't bring a ton to the table either. Pittsburgh has a great defense (first in the NFL) but bad secondary (last in interceptons), plus Willie Parker is out for the game. The one question mark for Jacksonville…playoff experience. Pittsburgh has a ton of experience and Jacksonville doesn't have any. But I still like Jacksonville in a close game. So, no Vegas isn’t nuts.

Peter: I’m going to have to disagree with you on this one. Jacksonville did beat Pittsburgh in the snow in December, but December isn’t January. Sure Willie Parker is out, but what does he give Pittsburgh? About 100 yards a game, plus some big play potential. Well, Najeh Davenport doesn’t have big play ability, but the yards will be there. Roethlisberger is becoming an elite QB and Steelers safety Troy Polamalu will play a huge boost to the secondary.

The biggest intangible in this game is field. You brought up the 3-0 typhoon-like game against Miami. The grass hasn’t held up well, advantage Pittsburgh. The Steelers like the field, a lot opposing teams don’t. The terrible towels will be out in force. I’m taking Pittsburgh in a close one.

-----

Prediction Time:


Peter:
Wildcard Round:
AFC: San Diego over Tennessee, Pittsburgh over Jacksonville
NFC: Seattle over Washington, Tampa Bay over New York Giants
Divisional Round:
AFC: New England over Pittsburgh, San Diego over Indianapolis
NFC: Dallas over Tampa Bay, Seattle over Green Bay
Conference Championship:
AFC: San Diego over New England
NFC: Dallas over Seattle
Super Bowl:
San Diego over Dallas

Colin:
Wildcard Round:
AFC: San Diego over Tennessee, Jacksonville over Pittsburgh
NFC: Seattle over Washington, New York Giants over Tampa Bay
Divisional Round:
AFC: New England over Jacksonville, Indianapolis over San Diego
NFC: Dallas over New York Giants, Seattle over Green Bay
Conference Championship:
AFC: New England over Indianapolis
NFC: Seattle over Dallas
Super Bowl Champion:
New England over Seattle

Note: Be sure to check out For Pete's Sake for up-to-date commentary on all things sports.

Saturday, January 5, 2008

NFL Wild Card Weekend Predictions

Saturday:
SEATTLE 28, Washington 17
What do you get when you take the loudest NFL crowd, with a team that is 23-3 at home over the last four years and an opposing quarterback who is shaky? A Seahawks victory. While Washington is riding momentum of winning their last four games to get into the playoffs, and have dedicated the season to fallen teammate Shaun Taylor, I just can't get past the fact that they are on the road with an unproven quarterback. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are starting to find a run game that was absent for most of the season, and their fans are the best in the country.

Jacksonville 24, PITTSBURGH 17
On paper I like the Jaguars because they are one of the hottest teams in football while the Steelers have hit a rough patch. The Steelers defense should keep them in the game, but the Jags beat Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh a few weeks ago (29-22). However, Heinz Field is great equalizer (see: Pittsburgh 3, Miami 0), but I still like the Jags by a touchdown.

Sunday:
Giants 34, BUCCANEERS 31
Tampa Bay took the last two weeks off to basically prepare for this game, but lost any momentum they had. The Giants on the other hand lost a close 38-35 game to the undefeated Patriots in the last game of the year, showing they can play with the best. Eli Manning has a history of not showing up for the playoffs, but I think this is the season he breaks through that reputation.

CHARGERS 31, Titans 6
This is probably the least exciting game, as Tennessee's offensive was offensive all season and is now without their starting quarterback. The Chargers started the season off on a terrible note, but have recovered and look to make a run in the playoffs. San Diego is better in every category except one: Coaching. Jeff Fisher is a much better coach than Norv Turner, but I don't think that will be eough. LaDanian Tomlinson will be tough to stop, so I don't see any problems for the Chargers.

Thursday, January 3, 2008

Manningham and Michigan links

First of all, I want to pass along this link to Coach Lloyd Carr's speech in the locker room after a 41-35 win over Florida on Tuesday.

Secondly, I want to answer a question posted by my buddy Peter who asked if Michigan wide receiver Mario Manningham is ready to make an impact at the professional level. In my opinion, yes, he is. Though he had a dismal game against Ohio State catching only five passes for 34 yards while dropping at least as many as he caught. But that was the one blemish on his resume.

In all, he caught 72 passes for 1,174 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2007 despite only 12 games. In fact, he ahttp://www.blogger.com/img/gl.link.gifveraged over 16 yards per catch, and almost 100 yards per game.

But remember he is only a junior, and still has the option of returning for a senior season. As you can imagine, I'm glued to the two leading Michigan football blogs: MGoBlog and Michigan Sports Center. According to a story by Michigan Sports Center, Manningham is reportedly going to stay for his senior year. Generally, it had been accepted that he was going to go pro, but it seems by this story that he is leaning toward staying.

My opinion is that he will stay if Mallett transfers (which, according to the same story, he will) because they reportedly don't have the best relationship. Also, if Michigan gets consensus No. 1 recruit Terrelle Pryor (Vince Young-like quarterback), he'll be posting some big numbers in the spread offense next year. Pryor is expected to announce his future plans this Saturday at the U.S. Army All-American Bowl, the high school football all-star game, but has said that's false and is expected to visit Michigan in late January.

Pryor has narrowed his choices to Michigan, Duke, Florida, Ohio State, Oregon and Penn St. Pryor reportedly wants to play basketball too. His cousin plays for the Michigan football team, so that along with the hiring of noted spread head coach Rich Rodriguez has made him put Michigan near the top of his list. Also, he and five-star running back who has committed to Michigan Sam McGuffie are now Facebook friends according to MGoBlog.

Here's what Pryor said about Michigan: "(Rich Rodriguez's) excited and so was I. Michigan was on my early list, and now their right up there again. He's a great coach and I like his offense."

Hopefully he picks Michigan.

Long answer short, if Manningham decides to leave, he'll make a great prospect for a mid-to-late first round choice. He does have a tendency to drop easy passes, but makes tough catches look easy. That and he's very, very fast.

Just a few more recruiting notes: Michigan has been assured by top recruits running back Sam McGuffie (who you can see on YouTube many, many times) and cornerback Boubacar Cissoko that they will keep their commitments to Michigan. If Pryor signs, that would bring in three five-star recruits in a combination of Carr's last recruiting class and Rodriguez's first recruiting class. That to go along 10 four-star recruits and three three-star recruits. Michigan is still waiting to hear from an additional five-star recruit, and seven four-star recruits.

You can watch many recruits this weekend, including six players who have committed to Michigan and another four who are currently being recruited.

The U.S. Army All-American Bowl:
West
Sam McGuffie (RB) Committed (5 Star, #6 RB, #50 Overall)
Nick Perry (DE) Recruit (4 Star, #7 DE, #61 Overall)

East
Boubacar Cissoko (CB) Committed (5 Star, #3 CB, #28 Overall)
Terrelle Pryor (QB) Recruit (5 Star, #1 QB, #2 Overall)
Shayne Hale (DE) Recruit (5 Star, #3 DE, #37 Overall)
Brandon Smith (DB) Recruit (committed at All-Star game) (4 Star, #5 S, #70 Overall)

Under Armour All-American Game:
Team Red
Darryl Stonum (WR) Committed (4 Star, #9 WR, #52 Overall)
Dann O'Neill (OG) Committed (4 Star, #15 OT)
Christian Wilson (OLB/FB) Committed (4 Star, #19 TE)
Brandon Moore (TE) Committed (3 Star, #45 TE)

In more local recruiting news, Washington is bringing in one of their best--if not the best--recruiting class ever. Right now, I think keeping Tyrone Willingham has been one of their best decisions. Behind Jake Locker who just finished his freshman year, the Huskies look poised to challenge USC in the coming years.

Tuesday, January 1, 2008

Before we get Rich, let's take the Carr for one more spin

It's almost ironic that the one player who carried Michigan throughout the season, almost cost them their bowl game.

But at the end of the day, it was senior Chad Henne's career-high 373 yards passing that offset the two Mike Hart fumbles inside the one-yard line to lead the unranked Michigan Wolverines (9-4) to a 41-35 victory over the No. 9 Florida Gators (9-4).

Henne came out on fire to start the game, completing his first six passes, and even though he threw two interceptions, he still connected on 25 of 39 passes for three touchdowns. His favorite target was Adrian Arrington who caught nine passes for 153 yards and two touchdowns.

"Adrian's been making so many plays this years. I couldn't ask for a better performance from him," Henne said.

Michigan got out to an early 7-0 lead after an impressive 93-yard opening drive, but lost a total of 15 yards on the next two possessions. Florida meanwhile missed a field goal on their opening drive, but scored touchdowns on their next two possessions to take a 14-7 lead.

But the Wolverines responded as Hart ran for the first of his two touchdowns on the day.

Florida struggled on their next few possessions, as did Michigan.

First Hart, a senior, fumbled the ball inside the one-yard line after a 72-yard drive, his first fumble in 1,005 touches. Then Henne threw an interception in the inside the one-yard line the next time Michigan had the ball.

The third time was a charm though, as Michigan took a 21-14 lead into halftime thanks in part to a long hook-up between Henne and Arrington that put Michigan inside the one-yard line.

The Wolverines opened up the second half with another Hart touchdown, extending their lead to 28-14. Florida responded with a 56-yard drive of their own resulting in a touchdown and 28-21 deficit.

After another Hart fumble inside the one-yard line, the third Michigan turnover with less than one-yard to the end zone and only Hart's second fumble since his freshman year (both in this game), the Gators drove 80 yards to punch in another touchdown and even the score at 28-28.

Michigan answered with a field goal, but Florida took a 35-31 lead half-way through the fourth quarter.

But behind Henne's leadership, the Wolverines took a 38-35 lead, then extended the lead to 41-35 after a field goal.

Heisman trophy winner Tim Tebow threw four-straight incomplete passes that gave Michigan the ball back to run out the clock, as Michigan's head coach Lloyd Carr got an ice bath in his final game at the helm and carried off the field (left).

"I'm proud of players to deal with things we've had happen," Carr said. "This team could have folded but never did. We stuck together and I give the seniors a lot of credit."

Hart carried the ball 32 times for 129 yards and two touchdowns in his final game. In addition to Hart and Carr, it was also the final game for Henne, All-America offensive lineman Jake Long, Arrington, safety Jamar Adams, and many other Michigan players.

But in the players' minds, the day was about Carr.

"It was an amazing feeling to send Coach Carr out in the right way," Henne said. "He deserves so much."